Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd.'s (SZSE:002873) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.8x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 27x and even P/E's below 16x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Guiyang Xintian PharmaceuticalLtd could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
How Is Guiyang Xintian PharmaceuticalLtd's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Guiyang Xintian PharmaceuticalLtd's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 32% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 23% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the only analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 22% each year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 25% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
In light of this, it's alarming that Guiyang Xintian PharmaceuticalLtd's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Guiyang Xintian PharmaceuticalLtd's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Guiyang Xintian PharmaceuticalLtd that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Guiyang Xintian PharmaceuticalLtd. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.