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The Five-year Earnings Decline Is Not Helping ChinaLin Securities' (SZSE:002945 Share Price, as Stock Falls Another 5.8% in Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 8 20:44

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in ChinaLin Securities Co., Ltd (SZSE:002945), since the last five years saw the share price fall 41%. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 35%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 13% in the last 90 days. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 12% in the same period.

Since ChinaLin Securities has shed CN¥1.7b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Looking back five years, both ChinaLin Securities' share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 43% per year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 10% compound annual share price fall. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve. The high P/E ratio of 1.16k suggests that shareholders believe earnings will grow in the years ahead.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

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SZSE:002945 Earnings Per Share Growth August 9th 2024

Dive deeper into ChinaLin Securities' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of ChinaLin Securities's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 19% in the twelve months, ChinaLin Securities shareholders did even worse, losing 35% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 7% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - ChinaLin Securities has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are concerning) we think you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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