Zhongtong Finance APP learned that Pacific Securities released a research report stating that as the interest rate cut cycle begins, overseas production capacity is accelerating, and geopolitical tensions ease, supply and demand will be realigned by 2025. At the same time, as the photovoltaic energy storage parity accelerates globally, the photovoltaic industry will usher in a new upward cycle. From various markets, Europe and the United States have already achieved photovoltaic energy storage parity, while China, India, the Middle East and other emerging markets are accelerating their efforts. With the deep clearing of domestic photovoltaic production capacity, it is expected that supply and demand will quickly reshape, and quotations and profits are expected to be repaired as short-term destocking accelerates.

New technologies continue to advance and have opened up a new cycle. Paying attention to technological innovation at the bottom, technological breakthroughs are expected to deepen the cost advantage of leading enterprises. In the silicon material link, with the advancement of the cost reduction of granular silicon, product parameter improvements, capacity release, downstream penetration rate improvement and other factors, the cost advantages are expected to be highlighted at the bottom; the battery sheet link is still the core of this round of technological iteration, with leading enterprises increasing BC production capacity and more enterprises participating in BC production research, BC cost reduction is expected to accelerate in 2025. At the same time, with the advancement of HJT, perovskite R & D, HBC and laminated industrialization are expected to accelerate.

It is important to focus on supporting links with a good supply and demand pattern. With the advent of photovoltaic energy storage parity, core markets and emerging markets have strong demand for photovoltaic energy storage, and inverters have ushered in a new cycle. At the same time, bracket companies benefit from overseas production capacity and brand recognition, and their performance is expected to turn in 2024. In the EVA film link, after being under pressure for 2-3 years, the market share of leading enterprises is expected to further increase, the supply and demand pattern is clear, and the cash flow pressure of second and third-tier enterprises continues to increase, and it is expected to turn around in 2025.

Beneficiaries analysis

Core growth: Leading companies in the main industry chain, such as JinkoSolar (688223.SH), Longi Green Energy Technology (601012.SH), JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ), Trina Solar Co., Ltd. (688599.SH), TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology (002129.SZ), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), etc.

New growth: Continuous technological iteration, new technologies and new markets bring new growth, such as Attes, heterojunctions, XBC, perovskite industrial chain, etc.

Supporting links: The inverter link, which values the first reversal, has already turned around, and beneficiaries include Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), DEYE Co., Ltd. (605117.SH), etc. The bracket, glass, and EVA film links with a good supply and demand pattern, with beneficiaries including Hangzhou First Applied Material (603806.SH), Flat Glass Group (601865.SH), etc.

Risk warning: Technological upgrades do not meet expectations, photovoltaic new installed capacity growth rate does not meet expectations, and industry competition intensifies.