The recent earnings posted by Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ:STX) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. However the statutory profit number doesn't tell the whole story, and we have found some factors which might be of concern to shareholders.

Examining Cashflow Against Seagate Technology Holdings' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to June 2024, Seagate Technology Holdings had an accrual ratio of -0.10. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$664m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of US$335.0m. Seagate Technology Holdings shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

While the accrual ratio might bode well, we also note that Seagate Technology Holdings' profit was boosted by unusual items worth US$399m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that Seagate Technology Holdings' positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to June 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On Seagate Technology Holdings' Profit Performance

Seagate Technology Holdings' profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. Based on these factors, we think it's very unlikely that Seagate Technology Holdings' statutory profits make it seem much weaker than it is. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, Seagate Technology Holdings has 4 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

Our examination of Seagate Technology Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.