央行的购买势头今年仍在继续，尽管总购买和总销售均低于去年同期，但Manthey预计，在当前经济环境和地缘政治紧张局势下，叠加金价从创纪录高位回落，央行的需求将保持强劲。Ewa Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING Groep, said that in the environment of continuing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of a US interest rate cut, gold is expected to regain its footing.
According to the Zhitong Finance App, Ewa Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING Groep, stated in the bank's monthly update last week that gold has recently joined the global market sell-off, but in the context of continuing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of a US interest rate cut, it is expected to regain its footing.
Driven by central bank bids, Asian consumers, and expectations of a Fed rate cut, gold has risen by about 18% so far this year. Manthey believes that after a period of consolidation, gold prices will maintain an upward trend.
Although total purchases and sales are lower than the same period last year, the central bank's purchasing momentum continues this year. Manthey expects that in the current economic environment and geopolitical tensions, coupled with gold prices falling from record highs, demand from central banks will remain strong.
The analyst also pointed out that after experiencing the strongest month since May 2023, global gold ETFs have seen continuous inflows for two consecutive months, and funds continue to maintain a positive trend in the short-term.
Manthey wrote, "Geopolitics will still be one of the key drivers of rising gold prices. The US presidential election in November and the long-awaited Fed rate cut will also increase the upward momentum of gold until the end of this year." He expects gold to average $2,380/ounce in the third quarter and peak at $2,450/ounce in the fourth quarter, resulting in an average annual price of $2,301/ounce.
After a turbulent week, August Comex gold futures rose 0.2% last week to $2,432.10/ounce, while August silver futures fell 2.7% last week to $27.487/ounce; on Friday, gold rose 0.4% and silver remained flat.
Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank said that in the turbulent geopolitics and difficult-to-promote inflation struggle, gold is still a strong hedge choice. Hansen said, "We still like gold as a diversified hedge tool against turbulence in other regions. If the Fed starts cutting interest rates as early as next month, Lenders who are sensitive to interest rates may return to the gold market through ETFs."
