According to the WiseNews app, Cui Dongshu, the Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, wrote that after the decline in market share of traditional fuel vehicles caused by the impact of new energy vehicles, the seasonality of the new energy vehicle market has become increasingly evident due to the decrease in the size of the first-time purchase group, changes in the purchasing crowd, and changes in the new energy channel, showing the characteristic of 'not being weak in the offseason'.

In June of this year, the retail sales were moderate without excessive overdraft in July. Coupled with the increase of the new energy subsidy for scrapped and updated vehicles to 0.02 million yuan, the new energy penetration rate surpassed 50% in July. Due to the expiration of the tax exemption policy at the end of May for micro electric vehicles of less than 200 kilometers, there was a sharp shrinkage of short-range electric vehicles with an average of more than 20,000 units per month, leading to a downturn in the pure electric market in June and a gradual recovery in the pure electric economic market in July. The scrapped and updated subsidies promoted the further diversion of plug-in hybrid vehicles and the demand for fuel vehicles, and promoted a 3% month-on-month increase in new energy vehicles and a 7% month-on-month decrease in fuel vehicles.

I. Overall trend of new energy passenger vehicles

In July 2024, the wholesale of new energy vehicles is very strong.

In July 2024, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 0.94 million units, approaching the level of November last year. Due to the Spring Festival and price interference, there was a significant decline in February, and the market gradually recovered and grew from March to June. The month-on-month decline in July was not large.

In July, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles reached 0.94 million units, with a same-period year-on-year growth rate rebounding to 28%, which is still basically the same as the growth rate of 30% from January to June. The overall trend in January-July is mild and rising.

Since 2023, the prices of power batteries such as lithium and nickel have been falling, so there is a downward trend in power battery prices. The low sales in February is beneficial for the company to reduce production at the beginning of the year, clear inventory, and achieve continuous growth in new product sales.

2. National new energy penetration rate-wholesale.

In July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles for independent brands was 62.6%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars was 37.2%; and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 8.1%.

In July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among domestic independent brands was 62.6%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 37.2%; and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among mainstream joint venture brands was only 8.1%.

In July, traditional auto manufacturers' wholesale sales dropped by 24% year-on-year, while new energy vehicles' retail sales increased by 27%, with a growth rate difference of 50 percentage points, and pressure on fuel vehicles.

3. Strong growth in new energy vehicle retail sales in July 2024.

In July 2024, the new energy vehicle retail market sold 0.88 million units, showing an exceptional feature of being stronger than June, and the overall situation was in a state of continuous strengthening for retail sales.

Due to the issuance of license plates in Beijing, the effect of releasing new demand in June and July was obvious, and some of the groups that had been waiting for price cuts began to purchase vehicles.

Cumulative retail sales in 2023 were 7.75 million units, a YoY increase of 36%. Retail sales of new energy vehicles in January-July 2024 were 4.99 million units, with a relatively stable trend of 34% increase compared to the 36% increase in 2023, which is a very good performance.

4. National new energy penetration rate-retail.

In July, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 51.1%, an increase of 15 percentage points from the penetration rate of 36.1% in the same period last year.

In July of domestic retail sales, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 73.9%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 27%; and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among mainstream joint venture brands was only 8.3%.

In July, traditional auto sales declined by 26% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 36%, with heavy fuel vehicle taxes and pressure.

The reason for the domestic passenger car new energy penetration rate exceeding 50%: 1. The enablement of the advantages of the industrial chain brought about by the increasing strength of Made in China, with the battery, motor, chip and other industries of equipment manufacturing and parts manufacturing having super strong advantages; 2. Under the promotion of new production forces, Chinese automobile companies are fully developing new energy vehicles, promoting the transformation of China's automobile industry from big to strong; 3. The guiding thought of open and developing the passenger car industry promotes the full entry of Internet companies, intelligent consumer manufacturing companies, international new energy vehicle companies and other industries, activating the industry's competition and innovation capabilities; 4. The innovative development of Chinese automobile companies in plug-in hybrid technology has achieved technological breakthroughs in narrow plug-in hybrid and extended range technology, enriching the technical route of world new energy development and achieving a breakthrough advantage of 78% of the world's plug-in hybrid market share held by China; 5. The national move to increase the subsidy for scrapped and updated passenger cars in July, with higher subsidies for pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles than conventional fuel vehicles, further boosting the development of new energy vehicles. Overall, the above measures have promoted the new energy vehicle penetration rate in the slow season of July to exceed 50%, helping the popularity of new energy vehicles to move to a new level. This phenomenon is worth paying attention to.

5. Large decline in new energy vehicle exports in July 2024.

In July 2024, the export of new energy vehicles was 0.091 million units, with a slight month-on-month rebound. The sluggishness of exports in January-February should have been affected by factors such as marine transportation. Independent exports grew significantly month-on-month in March, and independent part of car companies' exports faced weakening demand in Europe in April-July and actively adjusted.

More and more Chinese-made new energy products are going abroad. Due to the continuous improvement of overseas recognition and the improvement of service networks, domestic brand pure electric vehicles are mainly facing the market in developed countries. At present, there are phenomena of blocking Chinese new energy abroad, which is completely wrong, but we should also face it calmly.

From January to July 2024, cumulative exports of 680,000 units, an increase of 18% year-on-year. From the recent monitoring of retail data for independent exports to overseas markets, independent brands have performed moderately in Europe. In some overseas areas, in addition to the beautiful performance of traditional export automakers, new forces exports have gradually begun, and data in overseas markets have also begun to appear. The export performance of South America and other regions has also been continuously improving, and the export growth of independent plug-in hybrid models has begun. The high base of export in July 2023 did not have much promotion effect on exports, and the export of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow at a higher rate in the next few months throughout the year.

II. Analysis of the market structure of new energy passenger vehicles

1. The structure of new energy car compartments 2. In July, pure electric vehicle wholesale sales volume was 0.504 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1%, a month-on-month decrease of 9%; the sales volume of narrow plug-in hybrid in July was 0.318 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 73%, and a month-on-month increase of 3%; the wholesale of extended-range vehicles in July was 0.122 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 115%, and a month-on-month increase of 5%. 3. In July, the new energy wholesale structure is: pure electric vehicles 53%, narrow plug-in hybrids 34%, and extended-range vehicles 13%. In July 2023, pure electric vehicles accounted for 68%, narrow plug-in hybrid accounted for 25%, and extended-range vehicles accounted for 8%. In the new energy wholesale structure for the whole year of 2023, pure electric vehicles accounted for 69%, narrow plug-in hybrids accounted for 23%, and extended-range vehicles accounted for 8%, which effectively compensated for the range anxiety of pure electric vehicles and should be a branch of pure electric vehicles. 4. The level of new energy vehicles - the levels are relatively balanced 5. The sales of electric vehicles in various levels were differentiated in July, and the trend of consumption upgrade was good. Demand for small electric vehicles is weak, and demand for the second family car is average. High-end SUVs represented by Xiaomi grew stronger. 6. Due to the expiration of the tax exemption policy for micro electric vehicles below 200 kilometers at the end of May, there has been a sharp contraction in the market for short-range electric vehicles with an average of more than 20,000 units per month, which has led to a low season for pure electric vehicles in June and the gradual recovery of the market for low-priced pure electric vehicles in July. The scrapping and renewal subsidies promote the further diversion of plug-in hybrid models and drive the month-on-month growth of new energy vehicles by 3% in comparison to the 7% decrease in month-on-month gasoline vehicle anomaly. 7. The strong performance of independent and new forces in the new energy vehicle industry has continued. 8. From the monthly domestic retail market share, pure electric independent and new forces account for about 87% of the retail market share, which shows super strength. The performance of the main joint venture car companies and traditional luxury cars is far lower than Tesla. 9. The differentiation of new energy vehicle major manufacturers in July 2024 10. In terms of product launch, with the independent car companies' multi-pronged approach to the new energy route, the market foundation continues to expand, and 17 manufacturers have reached a monthly sales volume breakthrough of 10,000 units in new energy vehicles. 11. In July, 15 models of passenger cars with wholesale sales exceeding 20,000 units (17 in the previous month). In July, new energy vehicles ranked among the top 10 in overall passenger car models (top 5 in the previous month), and the main gasoline vehicle models in the domestic market were difficult to sell. BYD Song: 55,128 units, Model Y: 41,405 units, BYD Qin: 40,600 units, Seagull: 36,256 units, Qin L: 32,941 units, Model 3: 32,712 units, BYD Yuan: 30,286 units, BYD destroyer 05: 25,558 units, Sealion 06: 25,200 units, and Ideal L6: 24,856 units. 12. Analysis of the pure electric vehicle market in July 2024 13. In recent years, the pure electric passenger car market is still dominated by BYD, Tesla and traditional independent brands, but recent joint venture performances have improved significantly. In July 2024, the new energy passenger car market diversified its efforts, and the performance of new energy from large groups was differentiated. The strong performers of pure electric vehicles in July 2024 were BYD, Tesla, Geely Auto, Wuling, and Changan Auto. The performance of joint venture pure electric vehicle companies is weak. 14. 2. The wholesale of pure electric vehicles in July 2024 is weak due to China's poor vehicle wholesale market performance. 15. In July 2024, the performance of pure electric vehicle models was relatively strong, such as Tesla MODELY, Seagull, MODEL3, BYD Yuan and other products. 16. The trend of the plug-in hybrid market in July 2024 is polarized, and the main manufacturer is BYD, which has an absolute advantage. Due to its high sales volume, BYD (01211) is now followed by Geely Auto (00175), Great Wall Auto (02333), Changan Auto (000625.SZ), SAIC-GM-Wuling and others to develop plug-in hybrids, and competing products follow BYD's price reduction. Recently, Geely and Great Wall's new plug-in hybrid products have been very competitive. The performance of joint venture plug-in hybrid markets is relatively weak. Due to differences in the industrial chain, some joint venture enterprises of plug-in hybrid power models have performed relatively well recently. Recently, European and American plug-ins have been weak, and the plug-ins of luxury cars are not strong. 17. Plug-in hybrid models embody the characteristics of traditional domestic enterprises' products. Recently, BYD Song, BYD Qin, destroyer 05 and other products have good sales volume. BYD's product matrix is rich, and the trend has relatively large coverage. European and American companies do not attach much importance to luxury plug-in hybrids, and their sales trends are relatively stable. 18. Extended-range new energy vehicle companies have recently performed extremely well, with some car companies such as Ideal and Sokon showing a phase of explosive growth. The ideal increase this month has greatly recovered. Continued fast growth in extended-range products such as Changan Auto and Nezha Auto are being seen.

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In July, electric vehicles accounted for 53% of wholesale sales of new energy vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 34%, and extended-range electric vehicles accounted for 13%. In July 2023, pure electric vehicles will account for 68%, plug-in hybrid vehicles will account for 25%, and extended-range electric vehicles will account for 8%. The wholesale structure of new energy vehicles for the whole year 2023 is: pure electric vehicles account for 69%, plug-in hybrid vehicles account for 23%, and extended-range electric vehicles account for 8%. The extended-range electric vehicles effectively solve the problem of range anxiety for pure electric vehicles and should be considered a branch of pure electric vehicles.

1. The structure of new energy car compartments

In July, the sales of electric vehicles in various levels were differentiated, and the trend of consumption upgrade was good. Demand for small electric vehicles is weak, and demand for the second family car is average. High-end SUVs represented by Xiaomi grew stronger.

Due to the expiration of the tax exemption policy for micro electric vehicles below 200 kilometers at the end of May, there has been a sharp contraction in the market for short-range electric vehicles with an average of more than 20,000 units per month, which has led to a low season for pure electric vehicles in June and the gradual recovery of the market for low-priced pure electric vehicles in July. The scrapping and renewal subsidies promote the further diversion of plug-in hybrid models and drive the month-on-month growth of new energy vehicles by 3% in comparison to the 7% decrease in month-on-month gasoline vehicle anomaly.

From the monthly domestic retail market share, pure electric independent and new forces account for about 87% of the retail market share, which shows super strength. The performance of the main joint venture car companies and traditional luxury cars is far lower than Tesla.

From the monthly domestic retail share perspective, pure electric vehicles of self-owned and new forces account for about 87% of the retail share, showing strong performance. Block orders of joint venture automakers and traditional luxury cars are significantly lower than that of Tesla.

NIO, Naza, ideal, and Zero Run and other new energy vehicle companies' sales growth year-on-year and chain-on-chain performance remains relatively strong, especially NIO, ideal and other strong performance, which is also the advantage of subdivision market competition.

Independent brands have a relatively large market share in the pure electric vehicle market, while Tesla is the main high-end brand. Recently, plug-in hybrids have increasingly gained dominance among independent car makers, and extended-range electric vehicles are a unique offering for independent and emerging car companies.

Differentiation of main new energy vehicle manufacturers in July 2024

In terms of product introduction, with the diversified development of independent car companies on the new energy route, the market foundation continues to expand, and the number of manufacturers with monthly wholesale sales volume of new energy exceeding 10,000 vehicles continues to increase.

In terms of product launch, with the independent car companies' multi-pronged approach to the new energy route, the market foundation continues to expand, and 17 manufacturers have reached a monthly sales volume breakthrough of 10,000 units in new energy vehicles.

Independent companies hold an absolute dominant position, but some car makers continue to experience sustained pressure with a decline in cumulative sales.

Among the models with wholesale sales of more than 20,000 cars in May, new energy vehicles ranked among the top 5 in overall passenger car models, demonstrating their high market recognition. Mainstream gasoline car models showed weak performance.

In July, 15 models of passenger cars with wholesale sales exceeding 20,000 units (17 in the previous month). In July, new energy vehicles ranked among the top 10 in overall passenger car models (top 5 in the previous month), and the main gasoline vehicle models in the domestic market were difficult to sell. BYD Song: 55,128 units, Model Y: 41,405 units, BYD Qin: 40,600 units, Seagull: 36,256 units, Qin L: 32,941 units, Model 3: 32,712 units, BYD Yuan: 30,286 units, BYD destroyer 05: 25,558 units, Sealion 06: 25,200 units, and Ideal L6: 24,856 units.

Analysis of the pure electric vehicle market in July 2024

1. Sales Trends of Major Pure Electric Vehicle Manufacturers

In recent years, the pure electric passenger car market is still dominated by BYD, Tesla and traditional independent brands, but recent joint venture performances have improved significantly. In July 2024, the new energy passenger car market diversified its efforts, and the performance of new energy from large groups was differentiated. The strong performers of pure electric vehicles in July 2024 were BYD, Tesla, Geely Auto, Wuling, and Changan Auto. The performance of joint venture pure electric vehicle companies is weak.

The overall trend of new forces is diversified, and most of the new forces of pure electric vehicles perform generally.

2. The wholesale of pure electric vehicles in July 2024 is weak due to China's poor vehicle wholesale market performance.

In July 2024, the performance of pure electric vehicle models was relatively strong, such as Tesla MODELY, Seagull, MODEL3, BYD Yuan and other products.

BYD Sea Gull has particularly strong product strength in micro-electric vehicles and meets entry-level demands. Although the trend of micro-electric vehicles like Wuling Hongguang mini is weak, the new products of micro-electric vehicles such as Sea Gull perform well.

V. Analysis of the Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Market

1. Improvement of Plug-in Hybrid New Energy Vehicle Enterprises Performance

The trend of the plug-in hybrid market in July 2024 is polarized, and the main manufacturer is BYD, which has an absolute advantage. Due to its high sales volume, BYD (01211) is now followed by Geely Auto (00175), Great Wall Auto (02333), Changan Auto (000625.SZ), SAIC-GM-Wuling and others to develop plug-in hybrids, and competing products follow BYD's price reduction. Recently, Geely and Great Wall's new plug-in hybrid products have been very competitive.

Plug-in hybrid models embody the characteristics of traditional domestic enterprises' products. Recently, BYD Song, BYD Qin, destroyer 05 and other products have good sales volume. BYD's product matrix is rich, and the trend has relatively large coverage. European and American companies do not attach much importance to luxury plug-in hybrids, and their sales trends are relatively stable.

2. Strong Wholesale of Plug-in Hybrid Mainstream Vehicles in May 2024

Extended-range new energy vehicle companies have recently performed extremely well, with some car companies such as Ideal and Sokon showing a phase of explosive growth. The ideal increase this month has greatly recovered. Continued fast growth in extended-range products such as Changan Auto and Nezha Auto are being seen.

Recently, pure electric and plug-in hybrid export models have performed well in the European market, with BYD's Sea Lion and others having more exports, forming a micro-drive for China's plug-in hybrid in the European new energy market.

VI. Analysis of Extended-Range Electric Vehicle Market

1. Performance of Extended-Range New Energy Vehicle Enterprises

2. Performance of Extended-Range New Energy Vehicle Models

Jinkang Sokon's extended-range performance is super strong, and it has recently become a dark horse. Li Auto promotes the growth of the extended-range, and the actual user demand is still in pure electric mode.

The leading model for July 2024, Ideal L6, continues to be the main block orders, and competition in the main model market is gradually intensifying. Models with monthly sales of over ten thousand units have sufficient competition, and the growth of Changan is also good.

The extended-range electric vehicle, Ideal L6, has become the leading consumer model, while the performance of Ideal L9 is gradually slowing down, and the sales structure is shifting towards L7. This shows that consumers still have a good acceptance of the low stock price for extended-range options, and the cost-effectiveness of such vehicles is still important. Recently, Chang'an's deep blue extended-range and Qiyuan's pure electric vehicles have also started, forming distinctive differences.