The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (NYSE:MTW), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$562m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 92%, coming in at just US$0.04 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Manitowoc Company's five analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$2.18b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 137% to US$0.58. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.20 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.
The consensus price target fell 8.5% to US$12.97, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Manitowoc Company at US$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$9.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Manitowoc Company's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Manitowoc Company's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 6.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Manitowoc Company is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Manitowoc Company's future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Manitowoc Company going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Manitowoc Company (1 is a bit concerning!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.