TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited (HKG:8536) shares have had a horrible month, losing 27% after a relatively good period beforehand. Of course, over the longer-term many would still wish they owned shares as the stock's price has soared 155% in the last twelve months.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, given close to half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Specialty Retail industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.4x, you may still consider TL Natural Gas Holdings as a stock to potentially avoid with its 1.2x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.
How TL Natural Gas Holdings Has Been Performing
TL Natural Gas Holdings has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. Perhaps the market is expecting this decent revenue performance to beat out the industry over the near term, which has kept the P/S propped up. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for TL Natural Gas Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.How Is TL Natural Gas Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like TL Natural Gas Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 15% gain to the company's top line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 53% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.
This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, materially lower than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
In light of this, it's understandable that TL Natural Gas Holdings' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting this strong growth to continue and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Final Word
Despite the recent share price weakness, TL Natural Gas Holdings' P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of TL Natural Gas Holdings revealed its three-year revenue trends are contributing to its high P/S, given they look better than current industry expectations. At this stage investors feel the potential continued revenue growth in the future is great enough to warrant an inflated P/S. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for TL Natural Gas Holdings (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.