国联证券发布研报称，欧佩克成员国在第37届部长级会议达成新的产量协议，将延长自愿减产政策至2025年底，自2024年9月起逐渐取消自愿额外减产。根据测算，此次产量协议实施后油市在2024年下半年或将展现出更加趋紧的供需基本面，预测的基准情景下石油市场在2024年底或将面临接近50万桶/日的供应缺口。预期油价受基本面支持仍将维持在中高位水平。Petroleum stocks had the highest gains. As of press release, CNOOC (00883) rose 2.58% to HK$20.25; CNPC (00857) rose 2.55% to HK$6.84; Kunlun Energy (00135) rose 1.30% to HK$7.81; and Sinopec (00386) rose 1.21% to HK$5.02.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that petroleum stocks had the highest gains. As of press release, CNOOC (00883) rose 2.58% to HK$20.25; CNPC (00857) rose 2.55% to HK$6.84; Kunlun Energy (00135) rose 1.30% to HK$7.81; and Sinopec (00386) rose 1.21% to HK$5.02.
According to the news, recently, some of the top US refiners, including Marathon crude oil, are reducing the operation of their refining facilities this quarter, which heightens concerns about the emerging global crude oil oversupply situation. As a key factor in the balance between global crude oil supply and demand, US refiners are faltering due to stagnant consumption and shrinking profit margins. The slowdown in US economic growth has increased the imminent possibility of an oversupply of crude oil. Despite OPEC+ production cuts and heightened geopolitical tension, this threat has limited the increase in oil prices to about 7% this year.
Guolian Securities released a research report saying that OPEC member states reached a new production agreement at the 37th Ministerial Meeting, which will extend the voluntary production reduction policy until the end of 2025, and gradually cancel additional voluntary production cuts starting in September 2024. According to estimates, the oil market may show tighter supply and demand fundamentals in the second half of 2024 after the implementation of this production agreement. Under the predicted benchmark scenario, the oil market may face a supply gap of close to 0.5 million b/d by the end of 2024. Oil prices are expected to remain at medium to high levels, supported by fundamentals.
