China International Capital Corporation: global nuclear power demand is good + low-cost uranium resources are limited, and the central price of uranium is expected to rise.
On August 11th, the Opinion on Accelerating the Comprehensive Green Transformation of Economic and Social Development issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council proposed to prudently promote energy green and low-carbon transformation. "By 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will be increased to about 25%." In terms of specific measures, the Opinion proposes to speed up the construction of clean energy bases such as Northwest wind power and photovoltaics, Southwest hydropower, offshore wind power, coastal nuclear power, actively develop distributed photovoltaics, decentralized wind power, and develop new energy such as biomass energy, geothermal energy, and ocean energy based on local conditions, and promote the full chain development of hydrogen energy "production, storage, transportation and use".
Actively and safely develop nuclear power, maintain a reasonable layout and stable construction rhythm.
The common sources of uranium secondary supply include commercial inventory, diluted high-concentration uranium mines, tailings re-concentration, and extraction of spent fuel. According to UxC's forecast, global uranium secondary supply may be around 7000-8000 tu by 2030.
China International Capital Corporation stated that the restart of nuclear power has gradually become a global consensus, and the new units and extended lifespan of stockpile jointly drive the demand for uranium mines.
China International Capital Corporation believes that nuclear power has cleanliness and stability, and the global attitude towards nuclear power is gradually warming up, which is expected to support the demand for uranium mines.
Uranium mine demand comes from: ① procurement of new nuclear power units, usually purchased once for the amount of the next three years with a two-year lead time; ② demand for replacement materials for stockpile units, primarily from the European Union and North America.
China International Capital Corporation estimates that global uranium mine demand in 2024-2026 may reach 0.072 milliontu, 0.077 milliontu and 75,000 tu.
Uranium mine-related companies:
CGN Mining (01164): CGN Mining is one of the listed subsidiaries of CGN Group, the third largest nuclear power group in the world. It is also the only platform for overseas uranium resource development and investment under CGN Group. CGN Mining has a 60% uranium spot price exposure and is expected to benefit from the rise in uranium prices. It is predicted that global uranium demand will reach about 0.076 milliontU in 2024, while the supply is only about 0.06 milliontU. The long-term supply gap is expected to continue to expand, and long-term demand has not been met due to global production capacity constraints.