Led by the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, the 'trade-in' policy for automobiles is being promoted, which corrects pessimistic expectations for demand.
According to information provided by the person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce, as of July 25th, the automobile replacement subsidy platform has received 0.364 million applications for scrappage and renewal subsidies, with daily additions exceeding 0.01 million, and the quantity of applications for daily additions has nearly doubled compared to more than one month ago with an increase of more than 5,100.
Meanwhile, with the release of the Xiaomi SU-7, a multitude of new cars unveiled at the Beijing Auto Show, and a series of new cars from BYD DM5.0 and Hongmeng Smart Travel (Xiangjie S9, Zhijie R7, etc.) set to be launched one after another in the second half of the year, the supply side is gaining momentum.
Tianfeng Securities stated that with a push on automobile policies and supply-side efforts, the industry demand is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, and the outlook for the sector's market may gradually become optimistic.
The 'trade-in' policy for automobiles, led by the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, corrects pessimistic expectations for demand. According to a research report by Founder Securities:
1) The automotive off-season has passed, and the base effect is gradually dissipating: According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the retail sales of automobiles in July were 1.72 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, and a month-on-month decrease of 2.6%; the wholesale volume in July was 1.965 million units, a year-on-year decline of 4.9%, and a month-on-month decline of 9.4%. As a result of the countercyclical stimulus in 2023, Founder Securities believes that the year-on-year growth rate of autos in August is expected to reach the bottom, and as autumn approaches, the tailwinds of the Gold, September and year-end shopping seasons gradually appear, with expected synchronous repair and upward movement in the annual growth rate. 2) The scrap-and-replacement policy is strengthened, and the passenger vehicle sector receives another favorable turn: This time, the scrap-and-replacement policy further supports the performance of the automobile consumer market by increasing subsidies for passenger and commercial vehicles, and it is estimated that it will boost 0.5 million to 1 million units in the annual sales performance. It is expected to bring structural benefits to new energy automobiles and independent brands, and mid- to low-end independent and joint ventures will benefit structurally.
3) Valuation adjustment is sufficient, and the bottom of the industry is catalytic and imminent: As of August 9, 2024, the automobile index PE-TTM had reached 26.45, a 6.85% decrease from the high point during the year, with factors such as costs, maritime transportation, exchange rates, and price wars being bearish and successively being reflected. With the subsequent catalytic effect at the bottom, the automobile sector will begin to recover and move upward, with a focus on domestic substitution, luxury cars, exports, autonomous driving, and oversold parts and components.
The relevant enterprises in the automobile industry include: BYD (01211), Great Wall Motors (02333), China National Heavy Duty Truck (03808), Geely Automobile Holdings (00175), Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238), Nio Inc. (09866), Xpeng Inc. (09868), Li Auto Inc. (02015), and Xiaomi (01810).
Automotive industry-related businesses include:
Led by the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, the 'trade-in' policy for automobiles is being promoted, which corrects pessimistic expectations for demand. According to information provided by the person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce, as of July 25th, the automobile replacement subsidy platform has received 0.364 million applications for scrappage and renewal subsidies, with daily additions exceeding 0.01 million, and the quantity of applications for daily additions has nearly doubled compared to more than one month ago with an increase of more than 5,100. Meanwhile, with the release of the Xiaomi SU-7, a multitude of new cars unveiled at the Beijing Auto Show, and a series of new cars from BYD DM5.0 and Hongmeng Smart Travel (Xiangjie S9, Zhijie R7, etc.) set to be launched one after another in the second half of the year, the supply side is gaining momentum. Tianfeng Securities stated that with a push on automobile policies and supply-side efforts, the industry demand is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, and the outlook for the sector's market may gradually become optimistic. The 'trade-in' policy for automobiles, led by the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, corrects pessimistic expectations for demand. According to a research report by Founder Securities: 1) The automotive off-season has passed, and the base effect is gradually dissipating: According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the retail sales of automobiles in July were 1.72 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, and a month-on-month decrease of 2.6%; the wholesale volume in July was 1.965 million units, a year-on-year decline of 4.9%, and a month-on-month decline of 9.4%. As a result of the countercyclical stimulus in 2023, Founder Securities believes that the year-on-year growth rate of autos in August is expected to reach the bottom, and as autumn approaches, the tailwinds of the Gold, September and year-end shopping seasons gradually appear, with expected synchronous repair and upward movement in the annual growth rate. 2) The scrap-and-replacement policy is strengthened, and the passenger vehicle sector receives another favorable turn: This time, the scrap-and-replacement policy further supports the performance of the automobile consumer market by increasing subsidies for passenger and commercial vehicles, and it is estimated that it will boost 0.5 million to 1 million units in the annual sales performance. It is expected to bring structural benefits to new energy automobiles and independent brands, and mid- to low-end independent and joint ventures will benefit structurally. 3) Valuation adjustment is sufficient, and the bottom of the industry is catalytic and imminent: As of August 9, 2024, the automobile index PE-TTM had reached 26.45, a 6.85% decrease from the high point during the year, with factors such as costs, maritime transportation, exchange rates, and price wars being bearish and successively being reflected. With the subsequent catalytic effect at the bottom, the automobile sector will begin to recover and move upward, with a focus on domestic substitution, luxury cars, exports, autonomous driving, and oversold parts and components. The relevant enterprises in the automobile industry include: BYD (01211), Great Wall Motors (02333), China National Heavy Duty Truck (03808), Geely Automobile Holdings (00175), Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238), Nio Inc. (09866), Xpeng Inc. (09868), Li Auto Inc. (02015), and Xiaomi (01810).