Arya补充说，半导体行业仅处于上涨周期的第四季度，费城半导体指数已经产生了28%的回报。此前的上涨周期持续了10个季度，为该指数带来了67%的平均回报率。Bank of America believes that the recovery of the semiconductor sector may be earlier than the US election.
Zhixun Finance learned that semiconductor stocks have been fluctuating in recent weeks. Although some Wall Street insiders believe that this volatility may continue until the end of the US election, Bank of America believes that the recovery of the sector may be earlier than the US election. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya wrote in an investor report:"The turbulence may continue until Nvidia announced its performance in late August, and then enter September, which is the worst month of the PHLX Semiconductor Index in history, with 70% of the time in decline. The US election and ongoing geopolitical tensions add extra uncertainty. However, if history can serve as a guide, the index may recover from October, and the fourth and first quarters are the two strongest quarters for semiconductor stocks (with an average ROI of 7-10.5%, more than 400 basis points higher than the S&P 500 index)."
Nvidia is scheduled to announce its quarterly results after the market on August 28th. Analysts generally expect the company's second-quarter revenue to be $28.54 billion and earnings per share to be $0.64.
Arya added that the semiconductor industry is only in the fourth quarter of the uptrend cycle, where the PHLX Semiconductor Index has produced a return of 28%. The previous uptrend cycle lasted for 10 quarters, bringing an average ROI of 67% to the index.
The bank said that if the chip industry returns to its baseline rebound scenario, then Nvidia, Broadcom (AVGO.US) and KLA Corp (KLAC.US) may be the three outstanding stocks. The bank said that if volatility continues to rise and demand declines, Broadcom, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.US), and Synopsys (SNPS.US) may perform well. Arya said, on the other hand, if there is a recovery, then stocks such as Arm (ARM.US), Micron Technology (MU.US), and ON Semiconductor (ON.US) will perform well.
