When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 17x, you may consider Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 36.5x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
The recent earnings growth at Royal Gold would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. It might be that many expect the reasonable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For Royal Gold?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Royal Gold's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 4.7% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 21% overall drop in EPS. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 15% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
With this information, we find it concerning that Royal Gold is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Bottom Line On Royal Gold's P/E
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Royal Gold revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Royal Gold with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Royal Gold. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.