Facing doubts about the AI bubble, Nvidia received strong support from Morgan Stanley, stating that the Blackwell chip delivery in Q4 2024 will not be a problem. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Received strong support from Morgan Stanley, Nvidia stated that there will be no problem with the delivery of the Blackwell chip in Q4 2024.

On August 12th, local time, Morgan Stanley analyst Sharon Shih and her team released a research report stating that after a series of investigations into major suppliers of chips, computing boards, servers, etc., Morgan Stanley predicts that NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU and related server components will not change its delivery plan for Q4 2024.

Taiwan Semiconductor and Kyec Electronics are major chip suppliers, Wistron and Kingston are major Hopper server suppliers, Hon Hai and Quanta are major investors, and they are all likely to benefit from NVIDIA's Blackwell chip, which will boost their stock prices.

Morgan Stanley predicts that the delivery time of Blackwell chip will not change.

From the perspective of chips, in last week's AI tracking report, Morgan Stanley pointed out:

Taiwan Semiconductor's Blackwell chip production will be delayed by about two weeks between mid-to-late September. It is expected to produce about 0.62 million Blackwell chips in the second half of 2024, mainly concentrated from October to December.

Kyec Electronics has also confirmed that its main AI GPU customer NVIDIA has requested to expand its new testing capacity, further confirming that the chip production will not change significantly in Q4 this year. The capacity utilization data from Kyec Electronics is similar to our estimate of Taiwan Semiconductor's CoWoS-L (an advanced packaging technology), and the production capacity in Q4 is about 10kwpm.

All the above data indicates that the production volume of Blackwell chip in the fourth quarter should be about 0.15 million pieces/month.

In addition, many investors are concerned about the yield issue of CoWoS-L. Morgan Stanley's inspection shows that the yield is between 95-96%, so it is unlikely to delay delivery due to yield issues.

From the perspective of computing boards/servers, Morgan Stanley estimates that about 0.62 million Blackwell chips will be produced in the second half of this year. It can be seen that Wistron and Foxconn have increased the production of"Bianca" and "Ariel" GPU computing boards in Q1 2025.

In addition, B200A will be introduced into the HGX architecture, and is expected to be equipped with UBB, which will be supplied by Wistron. Morgan Stanley expects that B200A UBB will start production in Q1 2025.

From the perspective of thermal component suppliers, Morgan Stanley did not see any change in the delivery plan of GB200 server system thermal components (including cold plate modules and cooling fans).

The newly designed B200A will replace B100/B200 in the HGX server. B200A HGX server will continue to use 3D VC heat dissipation design, while GB200A will be designed as 2.5D VC (with a higher production yield than 3D VC).

From the perspective of server/rack delivery, Morgan Stanley's inspection shows that ODMs are continuing to prepare for the large-scale production and capacity expansion of NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU servers/racks. The production of GPU substrates and calculation boards usually takes 2-3 weeks, in order to be shipped immediately after the GPU suite is ready. Server assembly and rack installation may also require an additional 1-2 weeks and 1-2 months respectively. Therefore, Morgan Stanley expects relevant components to start production at the end of Q4 this year to facilitate the assembly of GB200 server racks later.

The production of GPU motherboards and computing boards usually takes 2-3 weeks in order to be shipped immediately after the GPU kit is ready. Server assembly and rack installation may require an additional 1-2 weeks and 1-2 months, respectively. Therefore, Morgan Stanley predicts that the related components will begin to be produced at the end of Q4 this year, in order to assemble the GB200 server rack system later.

Editor/Somer