Jingu finance | Pu Yin International said that the global smart phone 2Q24 shipment momentum is still strong, maintaining the annual shipment growth rate of 4%-5%. According to IDC's latest data, 2Q24 global smart phone shipments reached 0.29 billion units, a seasonal quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The year-on-year growth rate has been maintained at a high unit number or above for three consecutive quarters. Except for the shipment volume in India, which is lower than the bank's forecast, the shipment volume in other regions is higher than the bank's previous forecast. The bank said that the shipment volume of Chinese smart phones reached 71.75 million units in the second quarter of this year, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 9%. The year-on-year growth rate has improved for three consecutive quarters, surpassing the 6% growth rate in the first quarter of this year. The bank also maintained its forecast for China's smart phone shipments in 2024 at 0.28 billion units (a year-on-year increase of 4.2%).
Looking ahead to the next two years, the bank maintains its expectation of moderate growth in smart phone shipments in 2024, and expects the moderate growth trend to continue into 2025. In the next two years, Gen-AI smart phone shipments will grow strongly. The bank believes that smart phones with generative AI features have the ability to revolutionize user experience and are expected to drive global and Chinese smart phone shipments in the medium to long term, providing upside potential for global smart phone shipments.
In the consumer electronics sector, the bank recommends BYD Electronics (00285), Luxshare Precision Industry (002475.CH), and Lens Technology (300433.CH), all of which benefit from the moderate recovery momentum of the smart phone supply chain and the new product cycle of the Apple supply chain. The bank reiterated its "buy" rating on Qualcomm (QCOM.US), benefiting fully from the recovery of Android phones, the increase in the proportion of high-end phones, and the growth of AI value. The bank also reiterated its "buy" rating on Xiaomi (01810), which benefits from the rebound in the mobile phone business, the increase in the proportion of high-end phones, and the high-speed growth of the auto business.