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The Three-year Loss for T. Rowe Price Group (NASDAQ:TROW) Shareholders Likely Driven by Its Shrinking Earnings

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 15 09:33

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TROW) shareholders, since the share price is down 50% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 18%. Even worse, it's down 11% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

While the last three years has been tough for T. Rowe Price Group shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years that the share price fell, T. Rowe Price Group's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 13% each year. The share price decline of 20% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

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NasdaqGS:TROW Earnings Per Share Growth August 15th 2024

We know that T. Rowe Price Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, T. Rowe Price Group's TSR for the last 3 years was -43%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

T. Rowe Price Group shareholders are up 1.5% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 3% over five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. If you would like to research T. Rowe Price Group in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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