Bitcoin Market Dominance In Final Stretch, Will Peak At 60% Until December, Analyst Says
Bitcoin Market Dominance In Final Stretch, Will Peak At 60% Until December, Analyst Says
Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen predicts Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) dominance to reach 60% before the end of 2024, signaling the end of a multi-year trend and potential shifts in the crypto market landscape.
Into The Cryptoverse創始人Benjamin Cowen預測，比特幣（CRYPTO: BTC）支配力將在2024年年底之前達到60％，標誌着多年趨勢的結束和加密市場格局的潛在轉變。
What Happened: Cowen argues that Bitcoin dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market share relative to all cryptocurrencies, is in its "final stretch" of a rally that began in 2021. He attributes this trend primarily to monetary policy rather than technological advancements or market sentiment.
發生了什麼：Cowen認爲，比特幣的佔比（衡量比特幣市場份額與所有加密貨幣的相對比）正處於2021年開始的「最後階段」的行情中。他主要歸因於貨幣政策而不是技術進步或市場情緒。
Cowen explains that during periods of tighter monetary policy, investors tend to flee higher-risk assets for lower-risk options within each asset class. This has benefited Bitcoin at the expense of altcoins over the past few years.
Cowen解釋說，在貨幣政策收緊期間，投資者傾向於從各類資產中選擇低風險選項而逃離高風險資產。這在過去幾年中使比特幣受益，而以太幣等代幣則遭受虧損。
The analyst points to several key indicators supporting his thesis:
分析師指出支持他的觀點的幾個關鍵因子：
1. Historical Patterns: Bitcoin dominance has typically increased for three years before declining in the fourth year, coinciding with retail investor influx.
1. 歷史模式：在第四年下降之前，比特幣的主導地位通常會增加三年，這與零售投資者的湧入相吻合。
2. All-Bitcoin Pairs: Many altcoins continue to lose value against Bitcoin, suggesting further room for dominance growth.
2. 全比特幣交易對: 許多代幣繼續對比特幣失去價值，這表明支配地位仍有進一步增長的空間。
3. Federal Reserve Policy: Cowen believes the Fed will likely cut rates later this year, potentially marking the top for Bitcoin dominance.
3. 聯儲局政策: Cowen認爲，聯儲局可能會在今年晚些時候減息，這有可能標誌着比特幣佔比的頂點。
4. Technical Analysis: Bitcoin dominance is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which served as resistance in previous cycles.
4. 技術分析: 比特幣佔比正在接近61.8％Fibonacci回撤位，該位在以前的週期中充當支撐位。
Despite his bullish outlook on Bitcoin dominance in the short term, Cowen anticipates a reversal in 2024. He expects looser monetary policy to benefit altcoins and potentially trigger a new "alt season."
儘管Cowen短期看好比特幣佔比，但他預計在2024年將出現逆轉。他希望較松的貨幣政策將有利於代幣，有可能引發新的「代幣季節」
Why It Matters: Cowen cautions that while the dominance trend has been consistent, timing the exact top is challenging. He suggests September or December as likely timeframes for Bitcoin dominance to peak around 60%.
爲什麼重要：Cowen警告說，儘管支配趨勢一直保持一致，但精確定時頂點是具有挑戰性的。他認爲九月或十二月是比特幣佔比達到60％左右的可能時間範圍。
The analyst emphasizes the importance of understanding these cycles for preserving wealth in the crypto market. He notes that many investors who entered during altcoin rallies may have become "Bitcoin maxis" after experiencing the multi-year dominance trend.
該分析師強調了理解這些週期對於保護加密市場中的財富的重要性。他指出，許多在代幣漲勢中進入市場的投資者在經歷了多年的主導趨勢後已成爲「比特幣迷」。
As the crypto market potentially approaches a turning point, Cowen's analysis provides valuable insights for investors navigating the complex relationship between Bitcoin, altcoins, and broader economic factors.
隨着加密市場潛在臨界點的接近，Cowen的分析爲投資者在比特幣、代幣和更廣泛的經濟因素之間導航提供了有價值的見解。