Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of
Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) stock was strong after they recently reported robust earnings. However, our analysis suggests that shareholders may be missing some factors that indicate the earnings result was not as good as it looked.
最近,Aspen Aerogels公司(NYSE: ASPN)的股票表現強勁,因其近期公佈的業績強勁。然而,我們的分析表明,股東可能忽視了某些指標,表明業績結果並不像看起來那麼好。
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Examining Cashflow Against Aspen Aerogels' Earnings
對Aspen Aerogels公司的現金流與盈利的分析。
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
衡量公司將其利潤轉化爲自由現金流(FCF)的一項關鍵財務比率是應計比率。簡單地說,這個比率將FCF從淨利潤中減去,然後除以該公司在該期間的平均運營資產。您可以將從現金流中得出的應計比率視爲「非FCF利潤比率」。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
這意味着負面預提比率是一件好事,因爲它表明公司所獲得的自由現金流比其利潤所示的要多。這並不意味着我們應該擔心正面的預提比率,但值得注意的是,如果預提比率很高的話就要考慮這個問題。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年的一篇論文:「預提較高的公司未來的盈利能力較低」。
Aspen Aerogels has an accrual ratio of 0.28 for the year to June 2024. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Even though it reported a profit of US$1.39m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through US$132m in the last year. We also note that Aspen Aerogels' free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of US$132m. However, that's not the end of the story. We can look at how unusual items in the profit and loss statement impacted its accrual ratio, as well as explore how dilution is impacting shareholders negatively.
Aspen Aerogels公司在截至2024年6月的一年內的應計比率爲0.28。不幸的是,這意味着其自由現金流遠遠小於其規定的利潤,這使我們對利潤作爲指導的效用產生懷疑。即使它報告了139萬美元的利潤,但查看自由現金流表明,它實際上在過去一年中流出了1,3200萬美元。我們還注意到,Aspen Aerogels的自由現金流在去年實際上是負的,因此如果股東對其1.32億美元的流出感到困擾,我們可以理解。然而,這還不是故事的結束。我們可以看看損益表中的非常規項目如何影響其應計比率,以及探討稀釋如何對股東產生負面影響。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓您想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於其估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. Aspen Aerogels expanded the number of shares on issue by 9.8% over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. Check out Aspen Aerogels' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
爲了了解每股收益潛力,必須考慮公司對股東的稀釋程度。在過去一年中,Aspen Aerogels的股份發行數量增加了9.8%。因此,其淨收入現在分攤於更多的股份之間。每股收益等指標可以幫助我們了解實際股東從公司利潤中受益的程度,而淨收入水平可以給我們更好地了解公司的絕對規模。單擊此鏈接查看Aspen Aerogels的歷史EPS增長情況。
A Look At The Impact Of Aspen Aerogels' Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)
探討稀釋如何影響Aspen Aerogels公司的每股收益(EPS)。三年前,Aspen Aerogels虧損了。即使僅關注過去十二個月,由於去年也出現了虧損,因此我們沒有一個有意義的增長率。但是儘管如此,看到曾經不賺錢的企業變好總是好的(儘管我們接受的利潤如果不需要稀釋,將會更高)。因此,稀釋對股東回報產生了顯着的影響。
Aspen Aerogels was losing money three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.
從長期來看,如果Aspen Aerogels的每股收益能夠提高,則股價也應該上漲。但另一方面,了解利潤(但不是EPS)正在改善,我們會感到遠遠不如激動人心。因此,可以說EPS比淨收入更重要,長期來看,假設目標是評估公司的股價是否可能增長。
In the long term, if Aspen Aerogels' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
Aspen Aerogels的利潤受到非常規項目的影響,在過去十二個月中,這些項目減少了460萬美元的利潤。如果這是一項非現金收費,那麼就容易實現高現金轉換,因此,應計比率告訴了一個不同的故事,這是令人驚訝的。儘管非常規項目的扣除一開始令人失望,但其中有一線生機。我們研究了成千上萬的上市公司,並發現非常規項目在很多情況下是一次性的。這並不奇怪,因爲這些行項目被認爲是不尋常的。假設這些非常規開支不再出現,我們預計Aspen Aerogels明年可以產生更高的利潤,其他條件不變。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀釋之外,還應該注意的是,萬集科技在過去12個月中因不尋常項目獲得了價值人民幣3.5萬元的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當這些不尋常項目對利潤做出重大貢獻時,我們會更加謹慎。我們對全球大部分上市公司的數據進行了分析,發現不尋常項目往往是一次性的。這正如我們所期望的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲"不尋常"。相對於其利潤而言,萬集科技在2021年12月前的不尋常項目貢獻大。因此,我們可以推斷出,這些不尋常項目正在使其財務利潤顯著增強。
Aspen Aerogels' profit suffered from unusual items, which reduced profit by US$4.6m in the last twelve months. In the case where this was a non-cash charge it would have made it easier to have high cash conversion, so it's surprising that the accrual ratio tells a different story. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Aspen Aerogels to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.
我們對Aspen Aerogels的利潤表現的看法。
Our Take On Aspen Aerogels' Profit Performance
綜上所述,Aspen Aerogels的非常規項目表明其法定收益暫時受到壓抑,其應計比率表明自由現金流相對於利潤不足。除此之外,稀釋意味着股東現在擁有較少的公司股份。考慮到上述所有觀察結果後,我們認爲Aspen Aerogels的利潤可能給人留下了其可持續盈利水平的慷慨印象。鑑於此,如果您想對該公司進行更多的分析,了解所涉及的風險至關重要。爲了幫助您進行此項工作,我們發現了2個警告信號(其中1個有點令人擔憂!在購買Aspen Aerogels的任何股票之前,您應該了解這些信號。
Summing up, Aspen Aerogels' unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings were temporarily depressed, and its accrual ratio indicates a lack of free cash flow relative to profit. On top of that, the dilution means that shareholders now own less of the company. After taking into account all the aforementioned observations we think that Aspen Aerogels' profits probably give a generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 2 warning signs (1 is a bit concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Aspen Aerogels.
我們對Aspen Aerogels的檢查重點關注了某些因素,這些因素可以使其收益看起來比實際情況更好。因此,在此基礎上,我們對其持懷疑態度。但是,如果您能夠將注意力集中在細節上,並且對大多數人來說,高淨值回報是具有良好商業經濟學跡象的指標,那麼您可以發現此免費高回報股票集合或具有BR>重大內部持股的股票清單。雖然您可能需要進行一些研究,但您可能會發現這些清單很有用。
Our examination of Aspen Aerogels has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我們對Aspen Aerogels進行的審查側重於某些因素,這些因素可以使其收益看起來比實際情況更好。因此,在此基礎上,我們對其持懷疑態度。但是,如果您能夠將注意力集中在細節上,並且對大多數人來說,高淨值回報是具有良好商業經濟學跡象的指標,那麼您可以發現此免費高回報股票集合或具有BR>重大內部持股的股票清單。雖然您可能需要進行一些研究,但您可能會發現這些清單很有用。
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