Ji Yao Holding Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300108) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 82% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 21% in the last twelve months.
After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Ji Yao Holding Group is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 4.2x, considering almost half the companies in China's Pharmaceuticals industry have P/S ratios below 3.1x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.
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How Has Ji Yao Holding Group Performed Recently?
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Ji Yao Holding Group over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Ji Yao Holding Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Ji Yao Holding Group would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 21% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 48% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 17% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
With this information, we find it concerning that Ji Yao Holding Group is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
The large bounce in Ji Yao Holding Group's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that Ji Yao Holding Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Ji Yao Holding Group you should know about.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.