XP Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
XP Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
It's been a pretty great week for XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$19.80 in the week since its latest second-quarter results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of R$4.2b were in line with what the analysts predicted, XP surprised by delivering a statutory profit of R$2.03 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
XP股票持有人的这一周非常棒,自最新的季度二财报以来,股价上涨了 13%,达到了每股 19.80美元。虽然营收达到了 42亿雷亚尔,符合分析师的预期,但XP的每股收益却超过预期,为 2.03雷亚尔。股票收益对投资者来说非常重要,他们可以用它来评估公司的业绩,观察分析师对明年的预测,并查看共识对企业的看法是否发生了变化。我们收集了最近的法定预测,以查看这些结果是否导致分析师改变了其盈利模型。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240816/0-9470cea6773181890e9dfc1ca2f6be0a-0-58585197b544f6faa0842aa205f524bd.png/big)
Following the latest results, XP's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of R$17.4b in 2024. This would be a decent 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 6.3% to R$8.48. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$17.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$8.20 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on XP's earnings potential following these results.
根据最新的财报,XP的九名分析师预测2024年的营收将达到 174亿雷亚尔,相比过去 12 个月将增长 10%。预测法定每股收益将增长 6.3%,达到 8.48雷亚尔。而在最新的财报之前,分析师预计2024年的营收为 172亿雷亚尔,每股收益 (EPS) 为 8.20雷亚尔。因此,共识看来在XP的盈利潜力方面变得更加乐观。
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$24.41, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on XP, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$33.11 and the most bearish at US$19.06 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
并没有对US$24.41的共识价格目标进行重大调整,这表明改善的每股收益展望不足以对股票估值产生长期积极影响。考虑到分析师预测范围的差异,评估离群值意见与均值之间的差异可能是有益的。虽然有关XP的看法存在一些差异,但最看好的分析师的估值为每股 33.11美元,最看淡的为每股 19.06美元。然而,由于这样一个紧密的预测范围,分析师似乎已经很清楚地知道他们认为公司的价值为多少。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 21% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that XP is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
现在让我们来看看更宏观的画面,我们可以通过将这些预测与过去的业绩和行业增长预测进行比较来理解它们的意义。分析师预测到 2024 年结束时,公司的增长即将如常,收入预计将以年均 22% 的速度增长。这与过去五年的年均增长率 21% 相符。与整个行业相比,分析师的估计(合计)表明,该行业的年收入增长率将达到 5.5%。因此,很明显,XP的增长速度预计将比其行业快得多。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around XP's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$24.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
对我们来说最重要的是共识的每股收益升级,这表明人们对XP的盈利潜力明年有明显的改善。令人高兴的是,营收预测没有发生重大改变,企业仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标保持在 US $ 24.41,最新的估计对其价格目标没有影响。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for XP going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
记住,对投资者来说,业务的长期轨迹更加重要。我们为 XP 制定的2026年的预测可以在这里免费查看。
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for XP that you need to take into consideration.
还值得注意的是,我们已经发现了1个关于XP的警告信号,需要您考虑。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。