Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited (HKG:2313) shareholders. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 66% drop in the share price over that period. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 22% in the last 90 days. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 10% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Shenzhou International Group Holdings saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 3.7% per year, over the last three years. The share price decline of 30% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240818/0-9bffd463f331dd5bcc6235385a280ae3-0-af6b529fd4d4cc143d31d5c1609d3ba7.png/big)
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Shenzhou International Group Holdings' TSR for the last 3 years was -64%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 8.0% in the last year, Shenzhou International Group Holdings shareholders lost 13% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 7% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at Shenzhou International Group Holdings' dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.