Investors in Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002653) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.3% to close at CN¥30.24 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues CN¥935m disappointed slightly, at2.0% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of CN¥0.07 coming in 17% above what was anticipated. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the four analysts covering Haisco Pharmaceutical Group are now predicting revenues of CN¥3.97b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a notable 8.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 16% to CN¥0.40. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥4.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.42 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at CN¥34.94, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Haisco Pharmaceutical Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥36.71 and the most bearish at CN¥33.17 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Haisco Pharmaceutical Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 17% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 4.2% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 12% annually. Not only are Haisco Pharmaceutical Group's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Haisco Pharmaceutical Group. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Haisco Pharmaceutical Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether Haisco Pharmaceutical Group is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
