Lenovo Group Limited Just Beat Revenue By 9.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Lenovo Group Limited Just Beat Revenue By 9.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Shareholders might have noticed that Lenovo Group Limited (HKG:992) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to HK$9.68 in the past week. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$15b coming in 9.5% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.019, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
股東們可能已經注意到,聯想集團有限公司(HKG: 992)上週這個時候公佈了第一季度業績。早期的反應並不樂觀,過去一週股價下跌3.4%,至9.68港元。這是一個工人般的結果,收入爲150億美元,超出預期9.5%,法定每股收益爲0.019美元,與分析師的評估一致。根據結果,分析師更新了他們的盈利模式,很高興知道他們是否認爲公司的前景發生了巨大變化,或者業務是否照舊。因此,我們收集了最新的業績後預測,以了解估計對明年的預測。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lenovo Group's 23 analysts is for revenues of US$63.7b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 7.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to US$0.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$62.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.11 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Lenovo Group after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.
考慮到最新業績,聯想集團的23位分析師目前的共識是,2025年收入爲637億美元。這將反映出其在過去12個月中收入增長了7.2%。預計每股法定收益將增長17%,至0.10美元。然而,在最新業績公佈之前,分析師曾預計2025年收入爲620億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲0.11美元。因此,很明顯,在最新業績公佈後,對聯想集團的共識喜憂參半;儘管分析師提高了收入數字,但他們的每股收益預期也略有下降。
There's been no major changes to the price target of HK$12.27, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Lenovo Group analyst has a price target of HK$13.98 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$10.68. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
12.27港元的目標股價沒有重大變化,這表明更高的預測收入和較低的收益的影響不會導致企業估值發生有意義的變化。但是,固定單一價格目標可能是不明智的,因爲共識目標實際上是分析師目標股價的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡查看估計範圍,看看對公司的估值是否有任何分歧。最樂觀的聯想集團分析師將目標股價定爲每股13.98港元,而最悲觀的分析師則將其目標股價定爲10.68港元。如您所見,估計範圍很廣,最低估值不到最看漲估計值的一半,這表明對於分析師認爲該業務的表現存在強烈的分歧。因此,根據共識目標股價做出決策可能不是一個好主意,畢竟共識目標價只是如此廣泛的估計值的平均值。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Lenovo Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 12% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Lenovo Group is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
從現在的大局來看,我們可以理解這些預測的方法之一是看看它們如何與過去的業績和行業增長預期相比較。從最新估計中可以明顯看出,聯想集團的增長率預計將大幅加速,預計到2025年底的年化收入增長率爲9.7%,將明顯快於其過去五年中每年3.1%的歷史增長。相比之下,同行業的其他公司預計年收入將增長12%。顯而易見,儘管未來的增長前景比最近更光明,但預計聯想集團的增長將低於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
底線
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Lenovo Group. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最大的擔憂是,分析師下調了每股收益預期,這表明聯想集團可能會面臨業務不利因素。他們還上調了明年的收入預期,儘管預計其增長速度將低於整個行業。共識目標股價沒有實際變化,這表明根據最新估計,該業務的內在價值沒有發生任何重大變化。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Lenovo Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Lenovo Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考慮到這一點,我們不會很快就聯想集團得出結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤重要得多。我們對聯想集團的預測將持續到2027年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Lenovo Group you should know about.
那風險呢?每家公司都有它們,我們發現了一個你應該知道的聯想集團警告信號。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。