Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:301198) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 27% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 37% over that time.

Following the firm bounce in price, Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics TechnologyLtd may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 48.3x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 27x and even P/E's lower than 16x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics TechnologyLtd's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics TechnologyLtd's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 52%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 61% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the lone analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 23% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be similar to the 24% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it interesting that Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics TechnologyLtd is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics TechnologyLtd's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics TechnologyLtd's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics TechnologyLtd (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics TechnologyLtd. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.