According to the Futubull app, Brian Biggs, head of global macro research at Fidelity Investments, said that the US stock market is experiencing a seasonal difficult period, which is part of a larger narrative of the increasingly long duration of cyclical bull markets.

Last week marked the strongest week for the benchmark S&P 500 index this year. However, the US stock market recently experienced a sharp sell-off, mainly due to market concerns about the Federal Reserve's possible rate cuts and worries about a recession, as well as global risk asset sell-offs and stampedes caused by yen carry trades. The S&P 500 index once fell more than 8% from its historic closing high in July, but has since narrowed to around 2%.

Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity Investments wrote on social media platform X last Friday that the US stock market is currently in an unstable period of seasonal volatility that is expected to last from August to the first half of October. He wrote on LinkedIn last Friday that the stock market's "bullish rationale" is "not as convincing as it was a few months ago, largely because market leaders (i.e. tech giants) have become so large in market cap size that they are likely to be followed closely by major indices no matter where they go."

However, statistically speaking, he would not bet on the end of the US stock market bull market-at least not now. "US stock targets' earnings growth is accelerating, and funding costs are falling," he said on LinkedIn. "As long as we are not at the beginning of an economic recession, there really isn't much to dislike about common stocks."

He stressed that a typical bull market lasts at least 30 months and rises in value by about 90%. "So far, we are in 22 months and up 61% (at the recent peak)," he wrote. He also said, "My informed estimate is that the cyclical bull market has entered a more mature, rational, and volatile phase, with upward space constantly being squeezed, and there may be more opportunities for correction and adjustment. In technical analysis terms, we call this a bull market distribution."

As US stock markets and most stock markets in Asia and Europe rebounded strongly, more and more market analysts believe that this summer's 'stock market sell-off' looks more like a 'pause-style interlude' in the current bull market, rather than the beginning of the end of the bull market.

Due to the expectation of a soft landing in the US economy, the strong stock buyback size of US companies and the expectation of continued earnings growth expansion, the long-term trend of US and global stock markets is expected to remain strong, but may still be in a volatile state in the short term.

Tony Pasquariello, global head of hedge fund research at Goldman Sachs, said that the Federal Reserve is preparing to begin a new round of interest rate cuts, which will create favorable conditions for US stocks, but investors still need to find a way out in a volatile market.

Goldman Sachs assessed the risk/return of the market in a report last Friday. Recently, concerns about a possible US economic recession pushed key Wall Street volatility index, the VIX index, to levels above 65 during the COVID-19 pandemic, while the S&P 500 index plummeted under panic. Market concerns also led to a sharp drop in the Nikkei 225 index. However, since then, the decline in the S&P 500 index has narrowed to about 2%, while the Nikkei has recovered all the losses of 'Black Monday.'

"Ultimately, as we get through August relatively illiquid period and enter an extremely busy fall, I expect the trading environment to remain volatile, so I will stick to a portfolio that contains only the highest quality assets," Pasquariello wrote. He stressed that the US economy "has persistent resilience" and that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by a total of about 200 basis points this round, it is a "healthier macro environment" for stocks and other risk assets.

"However, in the meantime, I believe the market will continue to focus on the trajectory of earnings growth and geopolitical news," he said. "In addition, the narrative about artificial intelligence may not be as one-sided as it was a few months ago."