According to ZhITongCaiJing APP, the recent increase in pig prices is due to the tight supply, alleviation of high temperature, seasonal transition of industry from low to high season, widening price gap between standard and fertilizer-fed pigs, and the influence of quarantine tickets in the south. However, with the reduction in the price gap between standard and fertilizer-fed pigs and the decreasing influence of quarantine tickets, and the actively outflow of hogs from individual farms, the pig price may face phase adjustment. But the basic tight supply of the industry has not changed and there is still momentum for growth at the end of the month. China's General Administration of Customs has said that the export of products from poultry enterprises in Brazil's states unaffected by Newcastle disease has been officially restored, but the production in Rio Grande do Sul is still prohibited, which still has a certain impact on the total export of poultry meat.

Hog farming: Pig prices are expected to undergo phase adjustment after a continuous increase.

Price wise, the price of live pigs continues to rise. According to Boya and Xun monitoring, this week's average price of live pigs is 21.09 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 3.33% and a two-week increase of 3.65%. The average price of piglets is 44.52 yuan/kg, a weekly decrease of 1.31% and a two-week decrease of 0.46%. According to Wind data, the wholesale price of pork this week is 27.02 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 4.79% and a two-week increase of 3.47%. The breeding profit for self-bred and raised hogs is 681.76 RMB/head, and that of piglets raised from external sources is 493.22 RMB/head.

Weekly observation: Pig prices are expected to undergo phase adjustment after a continuous increase. On the basis of a tight supply, the recent rise in pig prices is due to the alleviation of high temperature, seasonal transition of industry from low to high season, widening price gap between standard and fertilizer-fed pigs, and the influence of quarantine tickets in the south. However, with the reduction in the price gap between standard and fertilizer-fed pigs and the decreasing influence of quarantine tickets, and the actively outflow of hogs from individual farms, the pig price may face phase adjustment. But the basic tight supply of the industry has not changed and there is still momentum for growth at the end of the month.

Poultry farming: Expecting a rebound in the industry's prosperity.

Price wise, this week's cost of live chickens remains unchanged, while the price of chick meat has risen. According to Wind data, this week's average price of live chickens in the main producing areas is 7.77 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and up 0.26% from two weeks ago. This week's breeding profit of live chickens is -0.01 RMB/bird, a weekly loss reduction of 95.24% and a two-week loss reduction of 86.13%. This week's price of chick meat is 3.50 RMB/bird, a weekly increase of 0.86%, and the breeding profit for parent chickens is 0.80 RMB/bird, a weekly increase of 3.90%.

Weekly observation: China has lifted the restrictions on the export of poultry meat from Brazilian states that are not affected by the new Castle disease. The rise in live chicken prices is constrained, and the weak profitability of breeding terminals still makes chicken meat sensitive to price changes. In addition, China's General Administration of Customs has said that the export of products from poultry enterprises in Brazil's states unaffected by Newcastle disease has been officially restored, but the production in Rio Grande do Sul is still prohibited. As the temperature gradually drops and the demand for poultry increases when schools reopen, the industry's prosperity is expected to rise again.

Vegetables: The prices and prosperity of vegetables are high. In the China Shouguang vegetable price index, this week's price index for mushroom products is 197.88, up 17.35% from last week, while the price index for leafy vegetables is 270.98, up 24.16% from last week.

Investment advice:

The current livestock and poultry farming sector is experiencing a previous stage of adjustment, with valuations at low levels. It is recommended to pay attention to companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products, Shennong Group, Leshan Giantstar Farming & Husbandry Corporation, Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times, Hunan New Wellful, Tangrenshen Group, and Guangdong Guanghong Holdings.

Risk reminder: The livestock and poultry farming industry is at risk of disease; the market for agricultural products and prices is volatile; the rise in pig prices may be less than expected; the recovery of demand may be less than expected.