该行表示，电解铝/氧化铝行业有望迎来周期上行，受益于煤价低位带来的低电力成本+氧化铝100%自给，公司利润弹性明显。预计2024-2026年实现归母净利润186亿元、227亿元、236亿元，对应现价的PE为5X、4X和4X。参考港股公司估值保守给予2024年6.4XPE估值，则公司合理市值为1189亿元，对应股价13.69港元，相较目前空间约为33%，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。Zhejiang Commercial Securities has issued a research report that China Hongqiao (01378) has an annual production capacity of approximately 6.46 million tons of operating aluminum, and has 17.5 million tons and 2 million tons of alumina production capacity in China and Indonesia, respectively. In Guinea, it maintains a stable annual production capacity of approximately 50 million tons/yr of bauxite.
The bank stated that the company will benefit from: 1) Tight upswing in supply and demand brings high performance elasticity. In the short term, the price of aluminum has obvious seasonal adjustments, with August to September being a key period for the transition between off-season and peak season, with a large upward elasticity. In the long run, the slow expansion of electrolytic aluminum production forms supply constraints, demand-side structural changes, and the core incremental contribution of new energy demand. By 2025, the supply-demand gap will further expand; the growth of domestic alumina production capacity is seriously constrained by the supply of bauxite, and the effective output of alumina will be the fastest to be put into production by the end of 2025/2026, and the possibility of maintaining a tight pattern of alumina supply from 2024 to H1 2025 is higher.
2) The company's 100% alumina self-sufficiency ensures that the cost side of electrolytic aluminum is not greatly affected within the price range of alumina, and the 39% production-sales ratio continuously increases the company's profit within the profit upswing range of alumina. As of the end of July 2024, the theoretical profit of domestic alumina is 1037 yuan/ton, and there is about 300 yuan/ton of profit difference between Indonesian alumina and domestic alumina, which exists because of the excess profits due to its proximity to bauxite resources.
The bank stated that the electrolytic aluminum/alumina industry is expected to usher in a cyclical upswing, benefiting from low electricity costs brought by low coal prices + 100% self-sufficiency in alumina, and the company's profit elasticity is obvious. It is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.6 billion yuan, 22.7 billion yuan, and 23.6 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 5X, 4X, and 4X at current prices. Referring to the conservative valuation of Hong Kong-listed companies with a 2024 PE ratio of 6.4X, the company's reasonable market value is 118.9 billion yuan, with a corresponding stock price of 13.69 Hong Kong dollars, which is about 33% higher than the current space. The first coverage is given a "buy" rating.
