他表示:“风险的平衡已经发生了变化，因此有关9月可能降息的辩论是合适的。”“如果我们没有看到劳动力市场走弱的迹象，如果失业率仍在3.7%至3.8%的区间，我认为我甚至不会争论，‘嘿，现在是降息的时候了吗?’”Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently suggested that the US job market may be excessively weak, which could make it appropriate for the Federal Reserve to relax its restrictive policy stance at the September meeting.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari recently suggested that the US job market may be excessively weak, which may make it appropriate for the Fed to relax its restrictive policy stance at the September meeting.
This represents a shift from his position in June when he said cutting interest rates before the end of this year might be unreasonable. In an interview last Friday, Kashkari said the rise in the US unemployment rate from 3.7% at the beginning of 2024 to 4.3% in July indicated an increased risk of a significant slowdown in the economy. At the same time, inflation continues to trend downward.
He said, "The balance of risks has changed, so it's appropriate to have a debate about whether a rate cut in September is warranted." "If we don't see signs of weakness in the labor market, if the unemployment rate is still in the range of 3.7% to 3.8%, I don't even think I would argue, 'Hey, is it time to cut interest rates now?'"
However, because initial claims for unemployment benefits did not show a significant deterioration in the economy, Kashkari believed there was no need to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points. According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor last Thursday, for the week ending August 10, initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell by about 7,000 to 0.227 million, with an expected value of about 0.235 million and a previous value of 0.233 million.
Kashkari still does not believe that the federal funds rate target range is as strict as others think. Layoffs are still at low levels, and the real estate industry is still resilient, but this does not mean that the Fed should maintain interest rates at the current level of 5.25% to 5.50%.
He said, "I am still unclear about the degree of policy tightening, but to me, the balance of risks has shifted more toward the labor market than the inflationary aspect of our dual mandate."
Editor/Somer
