The utilities sector is set to experience robust growth a year after the launch of the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR), with strong future prospects. The analysts highlight Tenaga Nasional (TNB), YTL Power, and Samaiden Group as top picks. This positive outlook is driven by a range of factors, including the burgeoning number of data centre (DC) developments, ongoing power grid upgrades, and the significant role of independent power producers (IPPs). Additionally, the expansion of domestic renewable energy (RE) capacity is expected to enhance contractors' job flow.
Analysts remain optimistic about the sector's trajectory, with an OVERWEIGHT rating reaffirmed. The recent advancements following the NETR's introduction, such as the Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme (CRESS) and the establishment of Energy Exchange Malaysia (ENEGEM), are crucial. These developments are set to push third-party access (TPA) mechanisms and facilitate energy exports, particularly to Singapore. Moreover, the continued rollout of solar power programmes and feasibility studies on alternative energy sources like biomass, ammonia, and hydrogen underscore the sector's growth potential.
West Malaysia's electricity consumption is forecasted to surpass the 10-year average growth of 2.4% over the next decade, primarily due to the expansion of data centres. The energy consumption of DCs alone is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6-2.6% from 2023 to 2035, provided that 3-5GW of DCs are fully operational by 2035. In response to this strong demand, the Government has set a reserve margin of 28-36% for 2024-2030. To support this growth, short-term power purchase agreement (PPA) bids are in progress, with the potential for extensions for gas-fired plants. Experienced IPPs, such as TNB and Malakoff Corp, are well-positioned to benefit from additional gas capacity expansions.
The upcoming Regulatory Period (RP) 4, expected by the end of the year, may bring changes to tariffs to accommodate new initiatives such as energy exports and TPA mechanism wheeling charges. The house anticipates a 25-40% increase in average regulated capital expenditure (capex) compared to RP2 levels, reaching RM8.6-9.6 billion annually. This adjustment is expected to reflect an annual demand growth of 3-4% and maintain a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.3%. The sensitivity analysis suggests that regulatory net returns could rise by 1.34% for every RM1 billion increase in average capex annually.
The solar power sector continues to show momentum, supported by favourable government policies and decreasing panel prices. The rapid progress in large-scale solar (LSS) projects and the upcoming Corporate Green Power Programme (CGPP) EPCC awards indicate significant potential for growth. With the shortlisting of bidders for LSS 5 and the rollout of CRESS and ENEGEM, solar EPCC players are expected to see sustained earnings growth.
在國家能源轉型路線圖(NETR)推出一年後,公用事業部門將迎來強勁增長,未來前景廣闊。分析師將Tenaga Nasional(TNB)、YTL Power和Samaiden集團列爲首選。這種樂觀的前景是由一系列因素推動的,包括不斷增長的數據中心(DC)開發、持續的電網升級以及獨立電力生產商(IPP)的重要作用。此外,國內可再生能源(RE)產能的擴大預計將增加承包商的工作流程。
分析師對該行業的走勢仍持樂觀態度,並重申增持評級。NETR推出後最近取得的進展,例如企業可再生能源供應計劃(CRESS)和馬來西亞能源交易所(ENEGEM)的成立,至關重要。這些事態發展必將推動第三方准入(TPA)機制並促進能源出口,尤其是對新加坡的出口。此外,太陽能發電計劃的持續推出以及對生物質、氨和氫氣等替代能源的可行性研究凸顯了該行業的增長潛力。
預計未來十年西馬的電力消耗量將超過10年平均增長2.4%,這主要是由於數據中心的擴張。如果到2035年有3-5吉瓦的發展中國家全面投入運營,預計從2023年到2035年,僅發展中國家的能源消耗就將以1.6-2.6%的複合年增長率(CAGR)增長。爲了應對這種強勁的需求,政府已將2024-2030年的儲備利潤率定爲28-36%。爲了支持這種增長,短期電力購買協議(PPA)競標正在進行中,有可能延長燃氣發電廠的期限。經驗豐富的獨立發電商,例如TnB和Malakoff Corp,完全有能力從額外的天然氣產能擴張中受益。
即將到來的監管期(RP)4預計將於今年年底出臺,這可能會帶來費率的變化,以適應能源出口和TPA機制的回收費用等新舉措。衆議院預計,與RP2水平相比,平均監管資本支出(capex)將增加25-40%,每年達到86-96令吉。預計這一調整將反映出3-4%的年需求增長,並將加權平均資本成本(WACC)維持在7.3%。敏感度分析表明,每年平均資本支出每增加10令吉,監管機構的淨回報率可能增加1.34%。
在有利的政府政策和電池板價格下降的支持下,太陽能行業繼續表現出勢頭。大型太陽能(LSS)項目的快速進展以及即將頒發的企業綠色能源計劃(CGPP)EPCC獎項表明了巨大的增長潛力。隨着LSS 5競標者的入圍名單以及CRESS和EneGem的推出,預計太陽能EPCC參與者的收益將持續增長。