折叠屏手机凭借创新的外形设计、差异化的体验，销量有望保持快速增长，根据Counterpoint的预测，2025年，全球折叠屏手机销量将达到5500万台，2022-2025年复合增长率为61.32%，国内折叠屛手机厂商及供应链将受益于折叠屏手机出货量的快速增长。In the first half of this year, the cumulative sales volume of foldable phones in China reached 4.98 million, a year-on-year increase of 121%.
According to CINNO Research data, foldable screen phone sales in the Chinese market reached 2.62 million units in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 125% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11%. Sales have maintained triple-digit year-on-year growth for four consecutive quarters. Total sales in the first half of the year were 4.98 million units, a year-on-year increase of 121%. The penetration rate was 3.6%, up 1.8 percentage points from the same period last year, when it was only 1.7%. The share in the high-end market above 5000 yuan reached 13%, compared to only 2% in 2020.
With the advantages of performance and price, domestically produced foldable phones have already taken the major share of the global market. According to Counterpoint's data, Huawei, Honor, and Lenovo's subsidiary Motorola had market shares of 35%, 12%, and 11%, respectively, in the first quarter.
With innovative exterior design and differentiated experience, sales of foldable phones are expected to maintain rapid growth. According to Counterpoint's forecast, global foldable phone sales will reach 55 million units in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 61.32% from 2022 to 2025. Domestic foldable phone manufacturers and supply chains will benefit from the rapid growth of foldable phone shipments.
Tianfeng Securities is tracking the UTG link in foldable phones and up/downstream demand remains high despite the downturn in consumer electronics. With the continuous decline of industry price bands, downstream demand is further promoted. We remain bullish on the continuous penetration of foldable phones in the next 3-5 years.
A research report released by Xiangcai Securities stated that according to Counterpoint's Q1 global foldable phone sales data, the year-on-year increase in Q1 2024 was 49%, reaching the highest growth rate in nearly six quarters. The rapid growth in the first quarter was mainly driven by increased shipments from Chinese manufacturers.
Since the second half of 2023, with the gradual recovery of consumer electronics, global smartphone and PC sales have seasonally rebounded, and domestic manufacturers have advantages in the foldable phone industry. Domestic foldable phone manufacturers and supply chains will benefit from the rapid growth of foldable phone shipments.
Companies related to foldable phones:
Lenovo Group (00992): Market research firm Techinsights released a Q1 2024 global foldable phone market report, in which Lenovo's Motorola achieved rapid growth with its clamshell RAZR series products, with a staggering year-on-year increase of 1260%, overtaking Samsung to become the sales leader in the U.S. foldable phone market.
Xiaomi Group-W (01810): With the catalysis of AI phones and the approaching of a new replacement cycle, smartphone shipments have returned to a stage of rapid growth due to the advancement of high-end and globalization. The company's global smartphone shipments increased by 33.44% in 2024Q1; in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia, smartphone market shares increased by 7.1%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, respectively, year-on-year.