日本财务省数据显示，日本7月出口额同比增长10.3%，为连续第八个月增长，但低于11.4%的市场预期中值。此外，日本7月出口总发货量较上年同期下降5.2%，为连续第六个月下降。Due to strong demand for chip manufacturing equipment in the market, Japan's exports to the United States grew by 7.3% in July. Against the backdrop of the Bank of Japan's gradual withdrawal from ultra-loose monetary policy, the yen may continue to rise, which will also pose a challenge to Japan's export growth.
On August 21st, Finance Association News (Editor Liu Rui) reported that the Ministry of Finance of Japan announced Japan's import and export data for July. The data showed that Japan's export growth rate was slightly lower than expected in July, and export volume continued to decline. This intensified doubts about Japan's economic prospects and added further mist to the road of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Japan's exports in July fall short of expectations.
Japan's Ministry of Finance data shows that Japan's exports increased 10.3% year-on-year in July, the eighth consecutive month of growth, but lower than the market expectation median of 11.4%. In addition, Japan's total exports in July fell by 5.2% year-on-year for the sixth consecutive month.
Due to strong demand for chip manufacturing equipment in the market, Japan's exports to the United States grew by 7.3% in July.
By category, exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in Japan increased by 27.8% in July, and exports of semiconductor electronic parts increased by 25.2%, with auto exports increasing by 6.2% year-on-year.
In addition, Japan's imports increased by 16.6% year-on-year in July, higher than economists' expectations of 14.9%. This brought Japan's trade deficit to JPY 621.8 billion (approximately USD 4.28 billion) in July, far higher than the expected deficit of JPY 330.7 billion.
Is the export engine facing a crisis?
Recent data has shown a new sign of sustained wage growth in Japan, which will help maintain expectations of achieving the Bank of Japan's target of 2% inflation, which is also a key factor behind the recent interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
However, as Japan gradually withdraws from its ultra-loose monetary policy in the past decade, the Bank of Japan still faces challenges such as "rising living costs putting pressure on families."
Against this backdrop, the Japanese authorities certainly hope to boost the export engine, but in the context of recent weak overseas demand, the latest export data in July has weakened this hope.
Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price trends are in line with its expectations, Japan's economic recovery momentum in the past year remains weak, along with the impact of the declining yen on consumption, which further increases uncertainty about the normalization of policy.
In addition, Japan's export growth in July was also driven by the weakening yen. Japan's Ministry of Finance said that the average exchange rate for the yen against the US dollar in July was 159.77 yen per US dollar, a 12.3% decline from the same period last year. However, in the context of the Bank of Japan's gradual withdrawal from ultra-loose monetary policy, the yen may continue to rise, which will also pose a challenge to Japan's export growth.