Three key points to focus on in the afternoon session: Worries about yen's appreciation, but resilient development.

Fisco Japan · Aug 20 23:22

21日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は反落、円高進行を嫌気も底堅い展開

・ドル・円は底堅い、145円台を回復

・値下り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位はアドバンテスト＜6857＞

■日経平均は反落、円高進行を嫌気も底堅い展開

日経平均は反落。前日比257.57円安（－0.68%）の37805.35円（出来高概算6億9000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

20日の米国株式市場は反落。ダウ平均は61.56ドル安（－0.15％）の40834.97ドル、ナスダックは59.83ポイント安（－0.33％）の17816.94、S＆P500は11.13ポイント安（－0.20％）の5597.12で取引を終了した。8月フィラデルフィア連銀非製造業活動の悪化で、景気減速懸念が再燃し、寄り付き後、下落。カンザスシティ連銀主催のジャクソンホール年次会合でのパウエル議長講演を今週後半に控えた利益確定売りも目立ち、終日軟調に推移し終了。

為替が1ドル145円まで円高ドル安が進行したことで、東京株式市場は売り優勢で取引を開始した。日経平均は37605.83円まで下げ幅を拡大した後は、為替の円高一服を材料に、下げ幅を徐々に縮小。前場は前日比マイナス圏で取引を終えたが、為替の水準を考慮すると底堅い展開となった。ただ、プライム市場の売買代金は1.7兆円と減少しており、様子見姿勢は強まっている様子。

日経平均採用銘柄では、国内証券会社のネガティブなレポートを材料に太平洋セメント＜5233＞が下落したほか、米10年債利回りが8月5日以来の3.8％割れとなったことで、日本の金利も低下し、第一生命HD＜8750＞、東京海上HD＜8766＞がさえない。このほか、資生堂＜4911＞、古河電工＜5801＞、IHI＜7013＞、住友化学＜4005＞、アドバンテスト＜6857＞、レーザーテック＜6920＞が売られた。

一方、カナダ同業大手アリマンタシォンからの買収提案で株価が動いているセブン＆アイHD＜3382＞が本日は上昇。国内証券会社のポジティブなレポートを材料にニチレイ＜2871＞も買われたほか、円高メリット銘柄のニトリホールディングス＜9843＞が上昇。このほか、キヤノン＜7751＞、キーエンス＜6861＞、テルモ＜4543＞、アステラス製薬＜4503＞、富士フイルムHD＜4901＞が買われた。

業種別では、石油・石炭製品、保険業、鉱業、パルプ・紙、非鉄金属が下落した一方、空運業、精密機器、サービス業の3セクターが上昇した。

ドル・インデックスは101.1台と今年1月の水準までドルは下落しており、ドルの弱さが目立つ。為替は朝方一時1ドル144円台に突入したが、いったん円買いドル売りは一服している。後場も為替を睨んだ神経質な展開となりそうだ。今晩の米労働統計局による基準改定値（速報値）公表に対する警戒感は強まっていることから、もう一段の円買いドル売りが入る余地はあろう。19日（月）のような後場崩れる相場展開を警戒したい。

■ドル・円は底堅い、145円台を回復

21日午前の東京市場でドル・円は底堅い値動き。前日海外市場で144円台まで大きく下げたが、値ごろ感による買戻しが先行し、144円95銭から145円59銭まで持ち直した。ただ、日経平均株価は序盤から弱含む展開となり、円売りは抑制されている。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は144円95銭から145円59銭、ユーロ・円は161円35a銭から161円98銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.1119ドルから1.1132ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・デジタルプラス＜3691＞、中村超硬＜6166＞の、2銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値下り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位はアドバンテスト＜6857＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・日・7月貿易収支：-6218億円（予想：-3500億円、6月：+2240億円）

【要人発言】

・独連銀月報

「景気回復は遅れ、年末にかけてインフレが維持知的に加速の可能性」

＜国内＞

・特になし

＜海外＞

・15:00　英・7月公的部門純借入額(銀行部門除く)（予想：+150億ポンド）

In the afternoon trading of the 21st, we want to pay attention to the following three points.

- The Nikkei average fell back, but the trend towards a stronger yen continued with a solid performance. - The dollar/yen rate is solid, recovering to the 145 yen level. - The top two losers were First Retailing (9983) and Advantest (6857). - The Nikkei average fell back, but the trend towards a stronger yen continued with a solid performance. - The dollar/yen rate is solid, recovering to the 145 yen level. - In morning trading in Tokyo on the 21st, the dollar/yen rate showed a solid movement. Although it had fallen sharply to the 144 yen level in the overseas market the previous day, buying on dips due to the sense of value led to a recovery from 144.95 yen to 145.59 yen. However, the Nikkei average started the day with a weak tone and the yen-selling was held back. - The trading range so far for the dollar/yen rate is 144.95-145.59 yen, the euro/yen rate is 161.35-161.98 yen, and the euro/dollar rate is 1.1119-1.1132 dollars. - Digital Plus (3691) and Nakamura Chokou (6166) both hit their daily limit up. - The top two losers were First Retailing (9983) and Advantest (6857). - Japan's trade balance in July: -621.8 billion yen (estimate: -350 billion yen, June: +224 billion yen). - Bundesbank Monthly Report: "The economic recovery is lagging behind, with the possibility of inflation accelerating intelligently towards the end of the year." - 15:00 UK public sector net borrowing in July (excluding bank sector) (estimate: +15 billion pounds).

- The weather is good today. - The weather is good today.

- The top two losers were First Retailing (9983) and Advantest (6857).

- The Nikkei average fell back, but the trend towards a stronger yen continued with a solid performance.

The Nikkei Average fell. At the end of the morning session, it was 37,805.35 yen (with an estimated trading volume of 0.609 billion shares), down 257.57 yen (-0.68%) from the previous day. Product structure, for 10-30 billion yen products, operating income is respectively 401/1288/60 million yen.

The US stock market fell on the 20th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 61.56 dollars (-0.15%) to 40834.97 dollars, the Nasdaq fell 59.83 points (-0.33%) to 17816.94, and the S&P 500 fell 11.13 points (-0.20%) to 5597.12 at the end of trading. After the deterioration of non-manufacturing activity of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve in August, concerns about a slowdown in the economy resurfaced, and it fell after the opening. Profit-taking selling ahead of this week's Jackson Hole annual meeting hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech is also prominent, so it remained weak and ended.

Tokyo stocks opened lower due to the progress of the yen appreciation and the dollar depreciation up to 145 yen to the dollar. The Nikkei Average expanded its decline to 37,605.83 yen, but gradually narrowed its decline due to a pause in the appreciation of the yen. It ended trading in the morning in the minus zone from the previous day, but it became a stable situation considering the level of the exchange rate. However, the trading value of the Prime Market decreased to 1.7 trillion yen, and the cautious stance seems to be increasing.

Among the Nikkei Average constituent stocks, Pacific Cement <5233> fell due to negative reports from domestic securities companies, and First Life HD <8750> and Tokio Marine HD <8766> fell as the US 10-year bond yield fell below 3.8% for the first time since August 5th, causing Japanese interest rates to also decline. In addition, Shiseido <4911>, Furukawa Electric <5801>, IHI <7013>, Sumitomo Chemical <4005>, Advantest <6857>, and Laser Tech <6920> were sold.

On the other hand, Seven & I HD <3382>, whose stock price is moving due to a takeover proposal from Canadian rival Alimentation Couche-Tard, rose today. Nikkei <2871> was also bought on the basis of a positive report from domestic securities companies, and Nitori Holdings <9843>, a yen-advantage stock, rose. In addition, Canon <7751>, Keyence <6861>, Terumo <4543>, Astellas Pharma <4503>, and Fujifilm HD <4901> were bought.

In terms of industry classification, petroleum and coal products, insurance, mining, pulp and paper, and non-ferrous metals all declined, while air transportation, precision instruments, and service industries rose in the three sectors.

The dollar has fallen to the level in January of this year, with a dollar index of around 101.1. The weakness of the dollar is noticeable. The exchange rate briefly soared to the 144 yen level in the morning, but once the yen buying and dollar selling subsided. The latter half of trading is expected to be a nervous market development, looking at the exchange rate. Given the increased vigilance about tonight's US Bureau of Labor Statistics announcement of preliminary estimates of revised baselines, there may be further opportunities for yen buying and dollar selling. We should be wary of a market trend like the one on the afternoon of the 19th (Monday).

- The dollar/yen rate is solid, recovering to the 145 yen level.

- In morning trading in Tokyo on the 21st, the dollar/yen rate showed a solid movement. Although it had fallen sharply to the 144 yen level in the overseas market the previous day, buying on dips due to the sense of value led to a recovery from 144.95 yen to 145.59 yen. However, the Nikkei average started the day with a weak tone and the yen-selling was held back.

- The trading range so far for the dollar/yen rate is 144.95-145.59 yen, the euro/yen rate is 161.35-161.98 yen, and the euro/dollar rate is 1.1119-1.1132 dollars.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

- Digital Plus (3691) and Nakamura Chokou (6166) both hit their daily limit up.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

- The top two losers were First Retailing (9983) and Advantest (6857).

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

- Trade balance for July in Japan: -621.8 billion yen (estimate: -350 billion yen, June: +224 billion yen).

[Important Person's Remarks]

- Monthly Report of the German Central Bank.

- "The recovery of the economy is delayed, and there is a possibility of maintainably accelerating inflation towards the end of the year."

Not applicable.

- 15:00 UK public sector net borrowing in July (excluding bank sector) (estimate: +15 billion pounds).

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～円高進行を嫌気も底堅い展開

Three key points to focus on in the afternoon session: Worries about yen's appreciation, but resilient development.

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