The daily trading volume of the US spot bitcoin ETF hit a new low since early February.

On Monday, the daily net inflow of the US spot bitcoin ETF was $61.98 million, while the total daily trading volume was $0.77987 billion, the lowest level since February 6th and the third lowest overall daily trading volume level. Augustine Fan, head of SOFA.org, said: "Low trading volume is expected, as market sentiment has been low since the massive sell-off weeks ago. It is worth noting that summer vacation and recent data have reduced people's concerns about the coming economic recession, and investors have to wait for more signals from the US Federal Reserve later this week."

Data: After halving, the price of bitcoin fell by 8.2%, the worst halving performance in history.

According to the data from blockchain analysis company CryptoQuant, after the Bitcoin halving, the price of BTC dropped by more than 8.2%, from $63,825.87 on April 19th to $58,530.13. In all previous halving years, the dollar value of Bitcoin has risen in the following four months.

Nansen analyst: The decline in ETH price is due to investor sentiment, not ETF fund outflows.

Since the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF in the USA on July 23rd, the price of Ethereum has dropped by over 26%, with a cumulative net outflow of $0.4205 billion. However, Aurelie Barthere, Chief Research Analyst at Nansen, a blockchain analytics platform, believes that the decline in Ethereum price is not due to continued fund outflows from the ETF, but rather due to investors lacking risk appetite.

As analyzed yesterday, the Bitcoin market is showing a rebound and retreat trend. The price rose to around 61400 at its highest point, and then fell back to around 58500. It is currently running at 59300. I don't know if everyone is making money or losing money recently. The current volatile market is a paradise for day traders, but a meat grinder for most people, making it easier to lose money.

Let's summarize the characteristics of the current market:

1. All breakouts are probably fake, rising too much will fall back, falling too much will rise back. You can see a lot of positive V and inverted V trends in the daily and hourly charts.

2. There shouldn't be a mindset. Holding positions in trending markets can make a lot of money, while holding positions in oscillating markets can turn profits into losses.

3. Whether you go long or short, if you don't stop loss and avoid liquidation, you will experience the process of being trapped, escaping, and making a profit. Therefore, we can find a matching way to make money:

4. Sell at the resistance level, buy at the support level, although it may lead to being trapped, it is highly likely to make a profit.

5. There shouldn't be a mindset. After escaping and making a profit, exit after making a gain of 2000 points.

By adopting the above methods, everyone should be able to make some money.

However, it is important to note that the characteristic of the daily peak and valley decline has not changed, meaning it is still a downward trend from a daily perspective. If the oscillating market lasts for a long time, it will once again usher in a trending market, and at that time, the operating method will need to be re-matched with the market.

The ethereum market has been oscillating back and forth, and the support level below has not changed. Personally, I think it will test the support below before rebounding. Intraday, consider a short long position, open long at 2530-2510, as this level has been tested twice without falling, it is considered an effective support. Set the stop loss at 2480 after the price falls to this level, and there is still supply.

Summary: Now is the time when market sentiment determines prices. Many friends have been asking me why the price rises in the morning but starts to fall during US time. Is it because Americans are selling off? In fact, there is no clear answer to this, but Americans may have the most BTC, and having the most represents the possibility of having the highest buying and selling volume.

Earlier, we mentioned the theory of 2 o'clock in the morning, which is basically the peak trading volume of Bitcoin every weekday after 2 o'clock in the morning. The depth and trading volume are the highest at this time, and it is still the case now, which indicates that this is the main active time for US cryptocurrency market users.

So when the sentiment is good or there is positive news, the buying volume during this time period is the highest. However, when the sentiment is bad or there is negative news, the selling volume during this time period may be the highest.

And when it's daytime in Beijing, liquidity reaches its lowest point, and trading activity declines. This makes it easy for a small amount of buying to push up the price and a small amount of selling to cause a significant drop. To put it simply, many friends like to chase the rising market and sell when it goes up, following the habit of buying high.

From the data, we can see that the largest sell-off today comes from short-term investors who bought in the past two days. They sold their chips when the price went up. Investors who bought above $60,000 are still holding and there are no signs of selling for now. In the past 24 hours, the Asian trading session has been the main market for prices above $60,000.

At 22:00 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the preliminary report on non-farm employment and wage census for the first quarter of 2024. The current market view is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will significantly lower the number of jobs. If this really happens, it's not a good thing and may increase market expectations of a recession.

That's all for today's article. The specific entry and exit plans are subject to real-time conditions. If you think what I wrote is good, you can give it a follow and keep reading~