Is Foryou (SZSE:002906) A Risky Investment?
Is Foryou (SZSE:002906) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Foryou Corporation (SZSE:002906) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录说得很明白:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动性,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。”因此,聪明人知道,债务(通常与破产有关)是评估公司风险时非常重要的因素。我们注意到华阳集团(SZSE:002906)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但这笔债务是否让股东担忧呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
当企业无法通过自由现金流或者通过优惠的价格筹集资金来轻松履行这些债务时,债务和其他负债对于企业就会形成风险。最终,如果公司无法履行其法定的偿还债务的义务,股东可能什至一无所有。不过,更频繁的(但仍然代价高昂)情况是,公司必须以非常低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,以维持其资产负债表的平衡。话虽如此,大多数情况下,公司会合理地处理债务,并依照企业自身的优势来运用借款。考虑企业使用多少债务时需要做的第一件事是查看其现金和债务的总和。
What Is Foryou's Debt?
华阳集团的债务是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Foryou had debt of CN¥77.1m at the end of June 2024, a reduction from CN¥217.3m over a year. However, it does have CN¥1.31b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥1.23b.
下面的图片(点击即可放大)显示,华阳集团在2024年6月底的债务为7710万元,较去年减少了21730万元。然而,它有13.1亿元现金来抵消这笔债务,导致净现金达到12.3亿元。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240821/0-2107a6b51806fc9f06526d3d521ca336-0-ac73063e715b75412886d48fa89a9d11.png/big)
How Strong Is Foryou's Balance Sheet?
华阳集团的资产负债表有多强大?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Foryou had liabilities of CN¥3.65b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥285.8m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.31b and CN¥3.99b worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥1.37b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
从最新的资产负债表数据来看,我们可以看到华阳集团在12个月内到期的负债为36.5亿人民币,超过12个月内到期的负债为28580万人民币。另一方面,它的现金为13.1亿人民币,应收账款为39.9亿人民币,年内到期。因此,它实际拥有的流动资产比总负债多出13.7亿人民币。
This short term liquidity is a sign that Foryou could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Succinctly put, Foryou boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
这种短期流动性表明华阳集团很可能轻松偿还债务,因为它的资产负债表远未超负荷。简言之,华阳集团拥有净现金,所以可以说它没有沉重负债!
On top of that, Foryou grew its EBIT by 99% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Foryou's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
另外,华阳集团过去12个月中EBIT增长了99%,这种增长将使其更容易应对债务。显然,资产负债表是分析债务时要重点关注的领域。但是,超过任何其他因素,未来的收益将决定华阳集团保持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费报告,展示分析师的盈利预测。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. Foryou may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Foryou barely recorded positive free cash flow, in total. While many companies do operate at break-even, we prefer see substantial free cash flow, especially if a it already has dead.
但是,最后一个考虑因素也很重要,因为公司无法用纸上利润支付债务,它需要现金。虽然华阳集团在资产负债表上有净现金,但了解业务如何将利润(利息和税前利润)转化为自由现金流非常有趣,因为这将影响其对债务的需求和承受能力。在过去的三年中,华阳集团几乎没有记录正面的自由现金流。虽然许多公司运营在保持收支平衡的状态下,但我们更希望看到可观的自由现金流,特别是如果已经有积压债务的情况下。
Summing Up
总之
While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Foryou has net cash of CN¥1.23b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 99% over the last year. So is Foryou's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Foryou (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
虽然我们能够理解对债务表示关注的投资者们,但你应该记住,华阳集团拥有12.3亿人民币的净现金,以及比负债更多的流动资产。去年华阳集团的EBIt增长了99%,给我们留下了深刻的印象。那么华阳集团的债务是否构成风险呢?在我们看来并非如此。当你分析债务时,清楚地了解资产负债表是其中的焦点。然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中——远非如此。例如,我们已经发现了2个关于华阳集团的警告信号(其中1个有点令人担忧!)在你投资之前,你应该明白这些。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时候更容易集中精力关注根本不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费访问零净债务增长股票列表。
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