The Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 25%. Looking back over the past twelve months the stock has been a solid performer regardless, with a gain of 18%.
Even after such a large drop in price, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may still consider Alpha Metallurgical Resources as a highly attractive investment with its 6.6x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Alpha Metallurgical Resources as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Is There Any Growth For Alpha Metallurgical Resources?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Alpha Metallurgical Resources would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 42%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 13% per annum as estimated by the two analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth per year, that's a disappointing outcome.
With this information, we are not surprised that Alpha Metallurgical Resources is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Key Takeaway
Having almost fallen off a cliff, Alpha Metallurgical Resources' share price has pulled its P/E way down as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
As we suspected, our examination of Alpha Metallurgical Resources' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Having said that, be aware Alpha Metallurgical Resources is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit concerning.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.