![share_log](https://pubimg.futunn.com/20220509000001638597b2a6ec7.jpg?imageMogr2/thumbnail/76x76!/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
- 市场
- 产品
- 资讯
- Moo社区
- 课堂
- 查看更多
- 功能介绍
- 费用费用透明,无最低余额限制
投资选择、功能介绍、费用相关信息由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供
- English
- 中文繁體
- 中文简体
- 深色
- 浅色
Are Investors Undervaluing Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) By 22%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) By 22%?
Key Insights
- Corning's estimated fair value is US$51.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Corning's US$40.73 share price signals that it might be 22% undervalued
- The US$43.31 analyst price target for GLW is 17% less than our estimate of fair value
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$1.58b | US$2.15b | US$1.93b | US$2.20b | US$2.35b | US$2.47b | US$2.58b | US$2.68b | US$2.78b | US$2.87b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 6.60% | Est @ 5.37% | Est @ 4.51% | Est @ 3.91% | Est @ 3.49% | Est @ 3.19% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.5% | US$1.5k | US$1.9k | US$1.6k | US$1.6k | US$1.6k | US$1.6k | US$1.6k | US$1.5k | US$1.5k | US$1.4k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$16b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.5%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.9b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.5%– 2.5%) = US$59b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$59b÷ ( 1 + 7.5%)10= US$29b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$44b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$40.7, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 22% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
![1724236398901](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240821/42662400-0-79622937826df8e73d3443a7edb34c0f.webp/bigjpg)
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Corning as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.206. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Corning
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Balance sheet summary for GLW.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electronic market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
- See GLW's dividend history.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Corning, we've put together three pertinent factors you should further research:
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Corning (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
- Future Earnings: How does GLW's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
主要见解
- 康宁公司的预估公允价值为51.97美元,基于2阶段自由现金流至权益的方法。
- 康宁公司的40.73美元股价表明它可能被低估22%。
- GLW的43.31美元分析师价格目标比我们的公允价值估计低17%。
今天我们将通过估算康宁公司(纽交所代码:GLW)作为投资机会的吸引力的估值方法,来预估公司未来的现金流,并将其折现为现值。这将使用折现现金流量(DCF)模型来完成。尽管它可能看起来相当复杂,但实际上并没有那么复杂。
记住,估算公司价值的方法有很多种,DCF只是其中一种方法。如果您对这种估值方法还有一些疑问,请查看Simply Wall St分析模型。
通过计算的步骤:
我们将使用两阶段DCF模型,正如其名称所述,考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是一个更高的增长期,之后在第二个稳定增长期中被捕获到终端价值。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。我们在可能的情况下使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会推断出上一个自由现金流(FCF)的上一个估计值或报告的价值。我们假设具有萎缩自由现金流的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而具有增长自由现金流的公司将在这段时间内看到其增长率减缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的减速比后期减速更快。
普遍认为今天的一美元比将来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要贴现这些未来的现金流总和来得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
杠杆自由现金流 ($, 百万) | 15.8亿美元 | 21.5亿美元 | 19年自由现金流为19.3亿美元。 | 220亿美元 | 23.5亿美元 | 24亿7000万美元 | US$2.58亿 | 26亿8000万美元 | 27.8亿美元 | 2.87亿美元 |
增长率估计来源 | 分析师 x5 | 分析师x3 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 估值为6.60% | 以5.37%估算 | 以4.51%的估值 | 以3.91%估算的价格 | 预计@ 3.49% | 以3.19%的速率增长 |
按7.5%贴现的现值($,百万美元) | 1.5千美元 | 1.9千美元 | US$1.6k | US$1.6k | US$1.6k | US$1.6k | US$1.6k | 1.5千美元 | 1.5千美元 | 1.4千美元 |
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
10年现金流的现值(PVCF)= 160亿美元
![](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240821/42662400-0-79622937826df8e73d3443a7edb34c0f.webp/bigjpg)
假设
- 债务得到充分覆盖,收入和现金流决定了债务水平。
- 过去一年的收益下降了。
- 与电子市场前25%的股息支付者相比,分红较低。
- 预计年度盈利增长将快于美国市场。
- 低于我们估价的20%以上。
- 分红派息不是由盈利和现金流量来覆盖的。
- 预计营业收入每年增长将慢于20%。
下一步:
- 其他优秀企业:低负债,高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是构建强大企业基础的基础。为什么不探索我们交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有坚实业务基础的其他公司?
PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其对每只美国股票的折现现金流计算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Australia Limited提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Moomoo Securities Australia Limited, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Australia Limited提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Moomoo Securities Australia Limited, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
- 分享到weixin
- 分享到qq
- 分享到facebook
- 分享到twitter
- 分享到微博
- 粘贴板
使用浏览器的分享功能,分享给你的好友吧