When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may consider Hercules Capital, Inc. (NYSE:HTGC) as an attractive investment with its 10.5x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Hercules Capital as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Hercules Capital will help you uncover what's on the horizon.Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like Hercules Capital's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 20%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 41% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the nine analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 2.5% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 10% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that Hercules Capital's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
What We Can Learn From Hercules Capital's P/E?
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Hercules Capital maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Hercules Capital (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.