The U.S. labor market's seemingly gravity-defying growth has been tempered by revisions to employment gains from April 2023 to March 2024.
The American economy has seen 818,000 nonfarm payrolls, previously reported in official government statistics, vanish into thin air.
This downward revision reduces the average monthly job gains to around 175,000, down from the originally reported 242,000.
The most significant declines occurred in professional and business services (-358,000 for the year), leisure and hospitality (-150,000), retail trade (-129,000), and manufacturing (-115,000).
On the other hand, there were upward revisions in private education and health services (+87,000) and transportation and warehousing (+56,400).
The immediate takeaway from this data is that the U.S. labor market was not as hot as initially perceived, although job gains have still been solid, amounting to approximately 2.1 million annually through March 2024.
Market Reactions: Dollar Falls As Rate-Cut Bets Increase, While Utilities, Gold Miners Rally
The downward revision to annual payroll data has heightened expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, with speculators increasingly betting on a 50-basis-point cut in September. According to the CME Group Fed Watch tool, the probability of this outcome has risen to 34.5%, up from 29% the previous day.
Traders are now fully pricing in that the federal funds rate will approach 4.25%-4.5% by the end of the year, implying a full percentage point cut from current levels.
This shift in interest rate expectations triggered a negative reaction in the U.S. dollar, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) erasing earlier gains.
In contrast, gold prices reacted positively following the release, although the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) remained in negative territory at 11:20 a.m. ET, down 0.2%.
Growth-sensitive commodities like oil declined, with the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) falling more than 1% after the data release, and down 0.3% for the day.
While the S&P 500 remained largely unchanged, notable sector movements emerged. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) dropped sharply following the data release, while the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB) and Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLU) saw gains.
Within industries, gold miners experienced a turnaround, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) flipping from session losses to gains.
Chart: 7 ETFs React To The Downward Revision In Employment Statistics
Image: Benzinga Pro- A Bar Of Pure Gold Is Now Worth $1 Million: What Can It Buy You?
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
美国劳动力市场看似无比坚挺的增长受到了对2023年4月至2024年3月就业增长的修正所抑制。
在官方政府统计数据中之前报告的81.8万非农就业，已经无影无踪。
这一下调将月均就业增长降低到约17.5万人，相比最初报告的24.2万人有所下降。
最显著的下降发生在专业和商业服务板块（年减少35.8万人）、休闲和酒店业（15万人）、零售业（12.9万人）和制造业（11.5万人）。
另一方面，私立教育和医疗服务（8.7万）、运输和仓储（5.64万）的就业数据有上调。
从这些数据中我们可以得出的直接结论是，尽管就业增长仍然很可观，每年约增加210万人，但美国劳动力市场并不如最初所认为的那么火热。
市场反应：随着降息预期增加，美元下跌，而公用事业和黄金矿业股市则出现了上涨。
年度薪酬数据的下调加剧了对鸽派美联储加息的预期，投机者越来越多地在押注9月份将会有50个基点的降息。根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）的“美联储观察工具”数据，这一结果的概率已上升至34.5%，高于前一天的29%。
交易员现在完全定价，联邦基金利率将在年底接近4.25%-4.5%，相当于当前水平下的完整百分点降息。
这种对利率预期的转变引发了美元的负面反应，因此景顺Db美元指数看好基金etf（纽交所：UUP）抹去了先前的涨幅。
相反，黄金价格对数据发布做出了积极的反应，尽管spdr黄金信托（纽交所：GLD）在上午11:20继续处于负值区间，下跌0.2%。
像石油这样的对增长敏感的大宗商品下跌，美国石油基金（纽交所：USO）在数据发布后下降了超过1%，当天下跌0.3%。
尽管标普500指数基本保持不变，但引人注目的板块活动出现。数据发布后，金融选择板块spdr基金（纽交所：XLF）急剧下跌，而物料选择板块spdr基金（纽交所：XLB）和公用事业选择板块spdr基金（纽交所：XLU）出现了上涨。
在行业中，黄金矿商经历了一次转机，VanEck黄金矿商etf（纽交所：GDX）从盘中亏损转为盈利。
图表：7只etf对就业统计数据进行下修的反应
图片：Benzinga Pro 图像由Midjourney通过人工智能创建。
