其次，中国宏桥派息超预期。中国宏桥宣布中期股息为每股0.59港元，派息率为57%(2023年上半年不包括特别股息为43%)，高于摩根大通的预期。不包括一次性公允价值和减值损失的派息率仍然很高，为48%。JPMorgan released a research report, maintaining a "shareholding" rating for Chinahongqiao (01378), with a target price of 13.20 Hong Kong dollars.
According to the Futu Securities app, JPMorgan has released a research report, maintaining a "shareholding" rating for Chinahongqiao (01378), with a target price of 13.20 Hong Kong dollars. JPMorgan stated that Chinahongqiao's performance in the first half of 2024 exceeded expectations and believed that its valuation is quite attractive, with an estimated dividend yield of 10% for the 2024 fiscal year.
JPMorgan listed the key positive factors for Chinahongqiao. Firstly, Chinahongqiao's aluminum and alumina unit profits exceeded expectations. Chinahongqiao's aluminum gross profit in the first half of 2024 reached RMB 4300/ton (an increase of 179% year-on-year), similar to the level in the second half of 2021. The significant improvement was due to higher average selling prices (ASP) and lower costs brought by a 100% alumina self-sufficiency ratio. During the period, the market price of alumina rose by 20% year-on-year to 3000 yuan/ton, but Chinahongqiao's self-produced alumina cost was only 2200 yuan/ton, allowing for increased unit profit by maintaining lower production costs. Chinahongqiao's alumina gross profit also reached a 5-year high of 748 yuan/ton.
Secondly, Chinahongqiao's dividend payout exceeded expectations. Chinahongqiao announced a mid-term dividend of HK$0.59 per share, with a payout ratio of 57% (excluding special dividends for the first half of 2023 was 43%), higher than JPMorgan's expectations. The dividend payout ratio, excluding one-time fair value and impairment losses, is still high at 48%.
JPMorgan expects the market's overall expectations for Chinahongqiao's full-year performance to be revised upward. JPMorgan also expects that, against the backdrop of increased dividend payouts and the recent rebound in aluminum and alumina prices, Chinahongqiao's stock price will receive a positive response.
