摩根大通预计市场对中国宏桥全年业绩的普遍预期将上调。摩根大通还预计，在派息增加以及近期铝和氧化铝价格反弹的背景下，中国宏桥股价将迎来积极反应。JPMorgan has released a research report, maintaining a "shareholding" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) with a target price of HKD 13.20. JPMorgan stated that China Hongqiao's performance in the first half of 2024 exceeded expectations and believed that its valuation is quite attractive, with an estimated dividend yield of 10% for the 2024 fiscal year.
JPMorgan has listed the key positive factors of China Hongqiao. Firstly, the unit profit of China Hongqiao's aluminum and alumina is higher than expected. In the first half of 2024, China Hongqiao's aluminum gross profit reached RMB 4,300 per ton (a year-on-year increase of 179%), similar to the level in the second half of 2021. The significant improvement is due to higher average selling prices (ASP) and lower costs brought by a 100% alumina self-sufficiency rate. During this period, the market price of alumina rose 20% year-on-year to RMB 3,000 per ton, but China Hongqiao's self-produced alumina cost was only RMB 2,200 per ton, allowing for increased aluminum unit profit by maintaining lower production costs. China Hongqiao's alumina gross profit also reached a 5-year high of RMB 748 per ton.
Secondly, China Hongqiao's dividend payout exceeded expectations. China Hongqiao announced a interim dividend of HKD 0.59 per share, with a payout ratio of 57% (excluding special dividends, the payout ratio for the first half of 2023 was 43%), higher than JPMorgan's expectations. The payout ratio, excluding one-time fair value and impairment losses, remains high at 48%.
JPMorgan expects the market's overall expectations for Chinahongqiao's full-year performance to be revised upward. JPMorgan also expects that, against the backdrop of increased dividend payouts and the recent rebound in aluminum and alumina prices, Chinahongqiao's stock price will receive a positive response.
