铝价自6月以来因需求势头疲软而回落，随着进入淡季，而云南恢复全面生产，中国社会库存去库存也滞后于通常的季节性。Jefferies Financial points out that the aluminum market in China will be in a tight supply and demand situation, which will support higher premiums and returns in the coming years.
According to data from the International Aluminum Association, global primary aluminum production in July 2024 was 6.194 million tons, compared to 6.048 million tons in the same period last year, with a revised figure of 5.982 million tons for the previous month.
The average daily production of primary aluminum in July was 0.1998 million tons, compared to 0.1994 million tons for the previous month. It is estimated that China's primary aluminum production in July will be 3.69 million tons, with a revised figure of 3.57 million tons for the previous month.
The price of aluminum has fallen since June due to weak demand, and with the onset of the low season and Yunnan's resumption of full production, China's social inventory destocking is lagging behind the usual seasonal trend.
However, with the arrival of the peak season in September and October, if Yunnan, as it has in the past three years, requires production cuts due to tight electricity supply in the winter, prices could gradually rise by the end of the year.
Jefferies Financial points out that the aluminum market in China will be in a tight supply and demand situation, which will support higher premiums and returns in the coming years. The demand from electric vehicles and photovoltaics is a new driving force that offsets the decline in the construction industry; furthermore, supply constraints will continue to exist, requiring recycling and utilization to fill the supply gap. The recent weakness in aluminum prices is seasonal and provides a good buying opportunity.
According to CITIC Securities, the resource properties of various links in the aluminum industry chain are significantly strengthened, and the profit level and stability are raised. Benefiting from this, the capital expenditure, profits, operation, and debt levels of aluminum industry enterprises are excellent, and the free cash flow is abundant. The future dividend rate is expected to exceed 5%. At the same time, China's aluminum industry enterprises have a global leading scale, cost and profit-making capabilities, and it is expected that the valuation level will have a 90-128% potential increase compared to overseas benchmarks. We are bullish on the synchronous improvement of profits and valuations in the aluminum industry.
Aluminum-related companies:
Chinahongqiao (01378), Aluminum Corporation of China (02600)