The European natural gas market is at a critical moment, as Norway's huge natural gas industry is about to begin its annual large-scale maintenance.

From late August, Europe will face a natural gas shortage for about three weeks, equivalent to the daily natural gas demand in Italy or France. Although it is common practice to maintain natural gas facilities during the usually low-demand summer, this time the risk is high due to significant price fluctuations.

This summer, the European natural gas market is particularly sensitive to supply disruptions, as heatwaves in other parts of the world have intensified the competition for this fuel. Traders are preparing to deal with the possible interruptions in Russian supply after the invasion of Ukraine near the Russian border, and the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East could bring further troubles.

Florence Schmit, European energy strategist at ABN AMRO, said, "Europe is in trouble. Any deviation from the seasonal maintenance plan could lead to significant fluctuations in natural gas supply and thus market price fluctuations, especially this year."

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict two years ago, Norway has replaced Russia as the largest natural gas supplier to Europe, and is heavily reliant on the Norwegian national oil company, Equinor.

Norway has replaced Russia as the largest natural gas supplier to Europe.

In the previous maintenance rounds, changes to the plan are common. Maintenance requires careful balancing of pipeline pressure, and the complexity of facilities and the harsh environment in the North Sea mean that discovering additional work is not uncommon.

Last summer, the importance of maintenance season for European energy security was obvious, as unplanned maintenance of some facilities in Norway led to soaring prices. Recently, in early June, a small crack appeared in a pipeline at the Sleipner Riser gas field, causing a supply interruption to the United Kingdom, and natural gas prices surged as a result.

Alfred Skar Hansen, Senior Vice President of Operations at Gassco AS, stated: "You always see situations that do not match the plan; some jobs may take longer or shorter, which can have a domino effect on the rest of the work." Gassco AS operates the Karsto large plant in Norway and is responsible for the country's pipeline network.

Karsto is one of the facilities that will be completely shut down during maintenance, and the giant Troll gas field supervised by the Norwegian National Oil Company will also reduce production. Over the next three weeks, Norway's daily natural gas production will decrease by 0.12 billion cubic meters, about one-third of its usual flow to Europe.

Gisle Ledel Johannessen, spokesperson for the Norwegian National Oil Company, said: "We have assessed the risks to ensure minimizing production losses as much as possible. The level of maintenance and inspection activities this autumn is quite normal, and we are well prepared."

On the positive side, Europe's gas storage is more abundant compared to the same period in previous years, reaching the critical 90% threshold two months ahead. Europe has also rapidly expanded its renewable energy capacity and built liquefied natural gas infrastructure to import fuel from elsewhere.

Despite this, Europe is still a few weeks away from the official start of the heating season, when demand typically rises, and Europe also faces intense competition for liquefied natural gas from Asia and other regions. Any issues could lead to price increases for the industry and consumers.

Gassco's Hansen said: "When accidents happen, challenges arise. It is very difficult to be prepared for everything."