Due to a large-scale sell-off by major holders, the price of cryptos has been extremely volatile throughout August. This month, Mt.Gox and several other companies have reached settlements in the millions of dollars in BTC. Despite this, the price of cryptos is currently undergoing a slight adjustment, suggesting a possible rebound in the next month.

Recent key events

1. Powell's speech on Friday is expected to signal the need for multiple interest rate cuts, which is bullish for the cryptocurrency market.

2. On August 21, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF was 601 BTC. The net inflow of Ethereum ETF was 5662 ETH, which is bullish.

3. In the previous Bitcoin halving cycle, the bull market started in the fourth quarter and whales will not let this year's fourth quarter performance be flat.

4. Filecoin will launch the second round of FIL-RetroPGF program in the autumn of 2024. Recently, Grayscale has increased its holdings of FIL.

5. CZ and Binance are facing new lawsuits related to money laundering and stolen cryptocurrencies, which is bearish.

6. Yesterday, Mentougou once again transferred 12,000 BTC ($0.7 billion) for sale. Currently, Mentougou still holds 46,164 BTC, and the bearish sentiment is diminishing.

7. Sam's rule has never failed. In the 11 economic recessions in the United States since 1950, each one successfully predicted that the building would collapse. This time, there may be a problem. Even the founder of Sam's rule and former economist of the Federal Reserve have suggested that it may fail this time.

The core of Sam's rule is to focus on the unemployment rate. The problem this time is that the unemployment rate has exceeded 0.5%. But the rise in the unemployment rate is not yet useful. Instead, all the problems come from the labor market. The demand in the labor market has not declined. On the contrary, the supply in the labor market has increased. This round has solved the core problem of Sam's rule by the real economy, the collapse of the hollow bubble, which may indicate that a major decline and recession will not occur.

Cryptocurrency market analysis

BTC daily chart analysis

Daily chart: The main trend on the daily chart is oscillating and repairing. The price has reached a key resistance level. The key resistance levels above are around 61,800 and 62,500, with an extreme resistance level around 63,500. The key support level is around 57,000.

4-hour chart analysis

4-hour chart: The market has turned from a range oscillation to a weak upward trend on the 4-hour chart. The key support level is around 59,800, and the range support level is around 58,500. The key resistance levels above are around 61,800-62,200, with the nearest resistance level around 61,500. After breaking through, pay attention to the daily chart resistance.

Intraday analysis

The recent sharp decline in bitcoin is a normal phenomenon, mainly due to the uncertainty of the USA politics. Along with the current economic instability, there is a constant risk of a hard landing in the news, so the large drops and rises leading to liquidation are normal. Just focus on surviving, no need to worry too much about other things.

The intraday bias is mainly for oscillating gains, with the key level at 60,000. Within the day, there is a repair-type intraday hourly gain. In the short term, it is possible to enter near the support of 60,200 for the put option, with resistance levels near 61,200 and 61,800.

Conclusion

There may be an interest rate cut in September, which is a clear signal of the start of a bull market. From this point, the market may really start. Usually, around 160 days after the bitcoin halving, the market begins to rise. Now, it has been about 125 days since the last bitcoin halving, which means the market may officially start around the end of September. Overall, the market's preparation is almost complete. The spot market needs to get through this tough time in the history of cryptos calmly and with equanimity.