Smart Finance APP learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, released the "Analysis of China's Auto Export Market from January to July 2024". In July 2024, China's auto exports reached 0.55 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 26% in July 2023 and a month-on-month increase of 13%, showing a good trend. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles in July 2024 reached 0.168 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23%. In 2024, China's auto exports reached 3.48 million units, with an export growth rate of 25%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles from January to July reached 1.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%. The growth rate in the first quarter of 2024 slowed down compared to the previous three years of high growth, with a rebound in May and a significant decline in June, followed by a further rebound in July.

Cui Dongshu pointed out that the main driving forces this year are the improvement of China's product competitiveness, the slight growth of the Central and South American markets, and the replacement of international brands in the Russian market under the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, especially the increase in the export of Chinese fuel vehicles. From January to July 2024, the export of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.14 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26%, accounting for 98% of the total export volume of new energy vehicles.

The top five countries for China's total auto exports in July 2024 were as follows: Russia with 96,086 vehicles, Mexico with 44,479 vehicles, the United Arab Emirates with 32,522 vehicles, Belgium with 23,869 vehicles, and Saudi Arabia with 19,897 vehicles. The top five countries contributing to the increase in China's auto exports in July were the United Arab Emirates with 19,489 vehicles, Belgium with 13,119 vehicles, Mexico with 11,220 vehicles, South Korea with 7,994 vehicles, and South Africa with 6,788 vehicles.

The top five countries for total vehicle exports from China in January to July 2024 were Russia with 574,566 vehicles, Mexico with 270,900 vehicles, Brazil with 181,663 vehicles, the United Arab Emirates with 174,472 vehicles, and Belgium with 162,752 vehicles. The top five countries contributing to the increase in China's auto exports from January to July were Brazil with 142,989 vehicles, Russia with 110,823 vehicles, the United Arab Emirates with 88,872 vehicles, Mexico with 47,121 vehicles, and South Korea with 35,688 vehicles. The contribution of the top 5 countries to the total increase was 61%, with Brazil making a significant contribution to the export increase.

In 2023, the markets in Russia, Central Asia, North America, and Asia saw relatively large increases. Recently, Russia, Mexico, and Brazil have shown strong performance. Overall, the global pandemic has promoted China's auto market exports to a certain extent, and the increase in China's export to various countries is also due to overseas conflicts and the improved cost performance of Chinese automobiles.

The top five countries in terms of total exports of new energy vehicles from China in July 2024 are: Belgium with 22,955 units, Mexico with 11,228 units, the Philippines with 9,088 units, Thailand with 8,402 units, and India with 8,213 units. The top five countries with the highest increase in the export of new energy vehicles compared to July 2023 are: Belgium with 13,294 units, Mexico with 9,451 units, Indonesia with 5,494 units, South Korea with 5,057 units, and Israel with 3,729 units.

The top five countries in terms of total exports of new energy vehicles from China from January to July 2024 are: Belgium with 152,787 units, Brazil with 134,467 units, the United Kingdom with 83,279 units, Thailand with 70,445 units, and the Philippines with 60,637 units. The top five countries with the highest increase in the export of new energy vehicles from China are: Brazil with 113,977 units, Mexico with 42,864 units, the United Arab Emirates with 24,622 units, Indonesia with 23,473 units, and South Korea with 23,244 units. These top five countries contribute 98% of the total export increase, with Brazil making a significant contribution.

The driving forces for export growth are the environmental conditions, high quality, hard work, and geopolitical changes. First, the environmental conditions -- the Chinese auto industry chain has strong resilience; second, high quality -- the contribution of new energy exports is increasing; third, hard work -- independent brand enterprises are working very hard; fourth, geopolitical changes -- the differentiated development of China's exports.

China's new energy vehicle exports to developed countries have presented a high-quality development trend, mainly to Western Europe and Southeast Asian markets. In the past two years, Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom have continued to be export highlights, although there was a slight decline in July. In contrast, exports to countries in the Americas, like Brazil, have shown a strong growth. Independent brands such as SAIC passenger vehicles and BYD have shown strong performance in new energy vehicle models. Although the export of new energy vehicles to Europe temporarily slowed in July, it is expected to rebound with the gradual adaptation to the impact of European anti-subsidy measures.

I. Overall trend of Chinese automobile exports

1. Characteristics of the growth rate of auto exports

China's automobile exports finally broke through the platform period of millions of units after years of stagnation. After a sharp decline during the global economic downturn from 2013 to 2016, the export growth rate gradually stabilized and improved from 2017 to 2020, with the annual export volume remaining at around 1 million units. In 2020, exports reached 1.08 million units, a 13% year-on-year decrease, and then entered a period of high growth.

Due to the impact of the global pandemic and the domestic production of Tesla, China's auto exports achieved tremendous growth in sales volume and unit price from 2021 to 2023. In 2023, China's auto exports reached 5.22 million units, with a sustained strong growth rate of 54%.

From January to July 2024, China exported 3.48 million vehicles, an increase of 25% year-on-year. As long as there is a stable market environment internationally, China's auto export development still has enormous potential.

In 2020, the annual sales volume reached 1.085 million units, a 13.1% year-on-year decrease. The export market sales in 2021 reached 2.187 million units, an increase of 102% year-on-year.

In 2022, the export sales volume of the market was 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 55%, mainly due to the significant enhancement of overseas supply shortages and the export competitiveness of Chinese auto companies. In 2023, Chinese autos achieved an export volume of 5.22 million units, with a continuous strong growth rate of 54% in exports, showing a very strong performance. Compared to the gradual recovery of domestic auto sales, the performance in the export market remains very strong. In the past two years, China's export growth has been significant under the international epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

In July 2024, Chinese autos achieved an export volume of 0.55 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26% compared to July 2023, and a 13% increase from the previous month, showing a very good trend. From January to July, China's auto exports reached 3.48 million units, with a 25% growth rate in exports. The first-quarter growth rate has slowed down compared to the previous three years of super-high growth, with a recovery in May, weakness in June, and export growth resuming in July. The main drivers this year are the improved competitiveness of Chinese products, minor growth in Central and South American markets, and Russia's market being completely replaced by Chinese cars under the Russia-Ukraine crisis, especially the increased exports due to the enhanced export competitiveness of Chinese gasoline cars.

2. Monthly trend of vehicle exports

From the monthly trend perspective, the export in recent years still shows seasonal characteristics, with a rising trend in summer contrasting with the domestic market. In 2022, the vehicle market started strong but saw a monthly decline in exports from February to April due to the impact of the Shanghai epidemic, followed by a continuous increase from May to December. In 2023, exports continued to show strength, maintaining the sales volume of the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a significant improvement in the global competitiveness of China's auto industry.

In the first seven months of 2024, China's auto exports basically followed the monthly trend of the previous years, with a significant increase in exports from March to May, a sharp drop in June, and recovery in July. The exports grew by only 20% in January-February this year, over 30% in March-May, showing strength in auto exports amidst a complex external environment.

3. Characteristics of the complete vehicle export structure

Before 2020, exports remained in the million scale. In 2021, the complete vehicle exports (including chassis) reached 2.19 million units, with a good performance of 102% growth rate. From 2021 to 2022, the standout performers in exports were four-wheel-drive SUVs and other passenger vehicles.

In 2023, auto exports showed an overall strengthening trend, with strong performance in gasoline cars and passenger vehicles as the main force of exports, with a growth rate of 65%. Four-wheel-drive SUVs and minivans had good export performance.

In 2024, the demand growth rate in the Russian market weakened, but the export resilience of passenger vehicles remained strong. The export performance of trucks, buses, and special vehicles was somewhat soft, but the trend of passenger vehicle exports in July increased by 32% and stabilized.

This year, the export of trucks by customs increased by 5%, showing a relatively differentiated trend compared to the domestic truck market, with various types of truck exports in the recent period.

From a structural perspective, the proportion of passenger vehicle exports continues to increase, while the proportion of truck and bus exports has decreased significantly. The outstanding performance in passenger vehicles is the increase in the export of small cars, with the proportion of small car exports reaching 33% in 2024, which is still the highest, but strong performance in small car exports in July.

The growth performance of light trucks in the truck segment is good, while the export performance of tractor trucks has declined. In the bus segment, large and medium-sized buses have recovered, while light-duty buses are slightly weaker.

4. Characteristics of the export structure of complete vehicles

The export growth rate of passenger vehicles in 2024 has rebounded, showing a positive trend in July compared to the first half of the year. In July 2024, pure electric passenger vehicle exports declined, while the plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles were strong. The export of gasoline passenger vehicles from January to July was strong, while the export of trucks and buses was weak. However, the trend of gasoline trucks and light buses was strong, indicating a shift in growth momentum.

In 2024, the export of new energy vehicles in the passenger vehicle segment accounted for 38%, while the proportion of new energy vehicles in truck exports was 4%, and for bus exports was 11%, reflecting the higher domestic and international recognition of China's new energy passenger vehicles. The overseas market demand for electrification of buses and other public transport vehicles is relatively low.

5. Characteristics of the export structure of new energy vehicles

Before 2019, the export quantity of new energy vehicles was relatively large, but passenger vehicles were mainly micro low-speed electric vehicles, and the actual mainstream new energy vehicle models were not many.

The export structure and quantity of new energy passenger vehicles have improved. From 2020 to 2022, the export of new energy vehicles performed well, with a cumulative export of 1.73 million electric vehicles in 2023.

In July 2024, the export of new energy vehicles was 0.168 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23%; from January to July, the export of new energy vehicles was 1.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%; from January to July 2024, the export of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.14 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26%, accounting for 98% of the total export of new energy vehicles. In recent period, the export of new energy buses and special vehicles has declined rapidly, with the export growth rate of new energy buses from January to July slowing down to 0.005 million units, a decrease of 14%.

II. Automotive export market structure

1. Regional characteristics of export manufacturers

In July, Anhui replaced Shanghai as the leading exporter of automobiles in China. The importance of Shanghai's exports to China is extremely evident. Shanghai exported 0.95 million vehicles in 2023, mainly due to the relatively excellent performance of local enterprises in Shanghai, especially SAIC Passenger Car and Tesla, both of which have relatively strong export volumes, and SAIC-GM's export performance has been stable. However, Shanghai's recent exports have been unusually low, with a decrease of 18% from January to July 2024, reaching 0.46 million vehicles, and a decrease of 2% in July.

Anhui's export performance is relatively strong, mainly due to the strong export performance of Chery. Shaanxi and Hebei have greatly increased their contribution to automotive exports.

2. Analysis of regional trends

In the first seven months of 2024, the pure electric vehicle exports to Oceania and Europe slowed significantly, but were still strong in other regions. The Red Sea crisis had little impact on Chinese exports, while EU policies led to a slight decline in China's new energy exports. The current growth in July is the result of exploring markets in Africa, South America, the Middle East, and other regions.

In terms of sales volume, exports from 2017 to 2023 showed a gradual recovery trend, mainly driven by Europe. In 2024, the proportion of exports to the EU declined, while exports to Central and South America, and the United States and Canada increased. The export ratio of new energy vehicles to Japan and South Korea reached 64% in July, far exceeding other regions. Recently, the market share in developed markets in Europe and North America has declined, and the market performance of developed countries has fallen back.

The export performance of new energy in South America is highly volatile. The export demand in poor and underdeveloped regions is unstable and unsustainable.

3. Analysis of the trend of vehicle exports by country

The average export price of cars was $0.016 million in 2021, $0.018 million in 2022, $0.019 million in 2023, and $0.019 million this year, almost unchanged compared to the average price of last year.

Due to significant changes in the Russian market and the withdrawal of other foreign investments, China's exports to Russia were higher in 2023. Last year, there were more exports to Belgium, but this year, with the sluggish economy in Europe, the export performance is average.

The vehicle markets in Chile and Peru experienced a sharp decline in 2023, but markets such as Brazil and Turkey have shown signs of recovery this year. Asia is still the market for Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh. The recent market performance in Mexico has been strong and has not been affected by tariffs from Europe, the United States, and Canada.

4. Monthly trend analysis of vehicle exports

The top five countries for China's total auto exports in July 2024 were as follows: Russia with 96,086 vehicles, Mexico with 44,479 vehicles, the United Arab Emirates with 32,522 vehicles, Belgium with 23,869 vehicles, and Saudi Arabia with 19,897 vehicles. The top five countries contributing to the increase in China's auto exports in July were the United Arab Emirates with 19,489 vehicles, Belgium with 13,119 vehicles, Mexico with 11,220 vehicles, South Korea with 7,994 vehicles, and South Africa with 6,788 vehicles.

The top five countries for total vehicle exports from China in January to July 2024 were Russia with 574,566 vehicles, Mexico with 270,900 vehicles, Brazil with 181,663 vehicles, the United Arab Emirates with 174,472 vehicles, and Belgium with 162,752 vehicles. The top five countries contributing to the increase in China's auto exports from January to July were Brazil with 142,989 vehicles, Russia with 110,823 vehicles, the United Arab Emirates with 88,872 vehicles, Mexico with 47,121 vehicles, and South Korea with 35,688 vehicles. The contribution of the top 5 countries to the total increase was 61%, with Brazil making a significant contribution to the export increase.

In 2023, the markets in Russia, Central Asia, North America, and Asia saw relatively large increases. Recently, Russia, Mexico, and Brazil have shown strong performance. Overall, the global pandemic has promoted China's auto market exports to a certain extent, and the increase in China's export to various countries is also due to overseas conflicts and the improved cost performance of Chinese automobiles.

5. Analysis of changes in the export regions of new energy vehicles

With Tesla's entry into China, the pattern of Chinese auto exports has changed. Shanghai was the top exporter for a long time, but faced a significant decline due to the temporary entry of the European Union. The regions with strong new energy vehicle exports in 2024 are Guangdong, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Hebei, and Jiangsu.

From the current export increase perspective, Hebei has a relatively large increase.

6. Analysis of changes in export countries

The earlier overseas bases for auto exports were not very ideal. In 2020, the main countries for auto exports were Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Chile, with significant fluctuations.

In 2022, the main markets for automobile exports are Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Belgium, Australia, the Philippines, Russia, etc., with many developing countries.

In 2023, the main markets for automobile exports are Russia, Mexico, Belgium, Australia, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, etc., with a strong trend in the European and American markets. Recently, relatively developed countries such as Australia, Belgium, and the United Kingdom have shown improvement.

In 2024, there will be changes in the structure of automobile exports, with Russia and Mexico remaining the top two, Belgium recovering, and recent sharp declines in exports to Brazil, with an increase in exports to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

7. Analysis of changes in exports to Russia

In 2022, China exported 160,000 vehicles to Russia. In 2023, China exported 910,000 vehicles to Russia, a year-on-year increase of 459%. From January to July 2024, China exported 580,000 vehicles to Russia, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Since 2023, Russia has suddenly become China's largest market for automobile exports, marking a major change in China's automobile exports after 15 years. In 2008, Chinese domestic brands performed well in the Russian market, but with Russia imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese automobiles, many Chinese automobile companies withdrew from Russia that year.

Recently, due to the withdrawal of other countries' automobile companies from Russia, Chinese automobile companies have quickly ensured the vehicle supply and demand in Russia. Currently, Chinese automobile companies should be temporarily safe in Russia, but caution is still necessary.

In 2024, the export of new energy vehicles from China to Russia has sharply declined due to changes in Russia's import rules.

In 2024, after a sharp increase and subsequent decline in the export of tractor-trailers and heavy-duty trucks from China, there has been an increase in the export scale of passenger vehicles in recent times.

8. Structural characteristics of exported new energy passenger vehicles.

In 2022, the export of new energy vehicles increased by 90% compared to the previous year. The main markets for export of new energy vehicles are Europe and Asia.

In 2023, China exported 1.73 million new energy passenger vehicles, achieving a strong growth of 55%. From January to July 2024, the export of new energy vehicles reached 1 million units, with a growth rate of 25%. The performance in July, with a 7% increase, was relatively average.

This year, China's export of new energy vehicles to European countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands has weakened, but exports to Brazil and other countries have been strong. In particular, exports to Brazil in July showed a significant decline compared to the previous month. The export of new energy vehicles to Australia has sharply declined. Recently, China's export to Israel has stabilized, and Chinese vehicles still have a strong advantage in Israel.

9. Characteristics of exported new energy passenger vehicles by country.

The top five countries in terms of total exports of new energy vehicles from China in July 2024 are: Belgium with 22,955 units, Mexico with 11,228 units, the Philippines with 9,088 units, Thailand with 8,402 units, and India with 8,213 units. The top five countries with the highest increase in the export of new energy vehicles compared to July 2023 are: Belgium with 13,294 units, Mexico with 9,451 units, Indonesia with 5,494 units, South Korea with 5,057 units, and Israel with 3,729 units.

The top five countries in terms of total exports of new energy vehicles from China from January to July 2024 are: Belgium with 152,787 units, Brazil with 134,467 units, the United Kingdom with 83,279 units, Thailand with 70,445 units, and the Philippines with 60,637 units. The top five countries with the highest increase in the export of new energy vehicles from China are: Brazil with 113,977 units, Mexico with 42,864 units, the United Arab Emirates with 24,622 units, Indonesia with 23,473 units, and South Korea with 23,244 units. These top five countries contribute 98% of the total export increase, with Brazil making a significant contribution.

In 2024, the main export directions are Belgium, the United Kingdom, Brazil, and Thailand. Recent exports to markets such as Belgium, Spain, and France have been weak. Non-European Union European countries, as well as Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, and the Philippines, have shown strong performance.

China's electric vehicle exports to the European Union, USA, and Australia have shrunk, with slightly greater sales pressure.

III. Trends in passenger vehicle exports by category

1. Passenger vehicle exports by displacement

Passenger vehicle exports are mainly in the range of 1 to 1.5 liters, which is also the comprehensive advantage of China's self-owned passenger vehicles.

With the continuous improvement of electric vehicle models, the export improvement of high-end electric vehicles is significant.

2. Characteristics of passenger vehicle exports as a whole

From January to July 2024, China's passenger vehicle exports decreased significantly in markets such as Spain, Australia, Thailand, and France.

In 2024, passenger vehicle exports to developed countries showed strong performance in countries such as Brazil, Russia, UAE, and South Korea, with Brazil experiencing an exceptional surge followed by a decline.

The main declining markets for China's new energy passenger vehicles in the first seven months of 2024 are Spain, Thailand, the Netherlands, Australia, Slovenia, etc.

The main increase in plug-in hybrid vehicles is in markets such as Brazil and Mexico. The main decrease in plug-in hybrid vehicles is in markets such as Belgium, France, and Israel.

Four. Trends in truck exports by category.

1. Truck exports.

In recent years, the growth rate of truck exports has not been strong, and the market share in the automotive export market has been consistently shrinking.

The main force in the truck market is gasoline and diesel trucks weighing below 5 tons, and overall there is strong demand for diesel heavy trucks weighing over 20 tons.

2. Characteristics of changes in the truck export market.

The top few positions in the truck export market have performed stable overall. In 2024, the main export performance was good. Truck exports declined in markets such as Russia and Australia, but improved in markets such as Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Algeria.

The growth of truck exports in 2024 is more prominent in less developed countries, indicating a recovery in growth.

The overall performance of the new energy truck export market is stable. Mexico and South Korea have large exports, but overall, it is not the mainstream product.

The export market for new energy trucks to Europe has performed poorly, currently showing a continuous decline.

5. Trends in classified bus exports

1. Bus exports

Recently, there has been a certain decrease in global bus demand, leading to continuous shrinkage of China's bus exports in the past two years. It decreased from 0.064 million units in 2019 to 0.037 million units in 2021.

Since 2023, global demand has started to recover, and China's bus exports in 2023 have recovered to 0.071 million units. It reached 0.044 million units in the period from January to July 2024, showing significant growth.

The export performance of pure electric buses is poor, while the export of fuel vehicles has grown significantly. After all, our bus exports are mainly to underdeveloped countries.

2. Characteristics of the changes in the export market for buses

China's bus export main markets are relatively dispersed, mainly in underdeveloped countries, the market is complex, making it difficult to consistently conduct exports in an orderly manner.

This year, there is a significant demand from Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Southeast Asian countries, with strong demand for buses in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Peru, Vietnam, Russia, and Mexico. The export growth this year is in markets like Saudi Arabia, Nicaragua, Laos, Egypt, while the shrinking markets are also developing countries like South Africa.

The export market for new energy buses is relatively small, with strong exports to Nepal, South Korea, and Japan. Overseas demand for Chinese bus electrification is not very high.