至于在就业市场方面，许多决策者认为就业人数成长可能夸大，就业目标面临的风险有所增加。The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the United States were released last night. Due to progress in inflation, the majority of policymakers believe that "if the data continues to align with expectations, it may be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting." In simple terms, policymakers are confident in the progress made in combating inflation and will begin to lower interest rates if the data continues to cooperate.
According to the latest forecast from the Fed Watch tool, the market currently believes that there is a 62% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% in September, and a 38% probability of a 0.50% cut.
Non-farm payrolls revised down by 0.818 million people.
As for the labor market, many policymakers believe that the growth in employment may be exaggerated, and there are increasing risks to the employment target.
The latest data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) yesterday evening shows that the preliminary number of employed persons for March 2023 to March 2024 has been revised down by 0.818 million people. This not only marks the largest downward revision since 2009, but also the second highest on record.
This validates that the US job market may not be as strong as previously indicated by the data, further increasing the pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates next month.
Bitcoin rose more than 3%.
Perhaps benefiting from the upcoming Fed rate cut, Bitcoin briefly rose after hitting $58,815 last night and has been fluctuating upwards ever since. Earlier this morning at 4 AM, it reached a high of $61,823. As of writing this report, it is trading at $60,912, representing a 2.7% increase in the past 24 hours.
The trend of Ethereum is similar but with a slightly smaller increase. Currently trading at $2,625, it has risen by 1.35% in the past 24 hours.
Approximately $0.1 billion in liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours.
According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidations in the cryptocurrency perpetual contracts market is approximately $0.1 billion, resulting in about 0.04 million people being liquidated. Overall, this is not particularly high. If block orders intend to clear short positions, there may be further upward movement.
This article is written by the Bitop Market Observation Team analyst team, and the content is only personal opinions for sharing, not constituting any investment advice. Analysis is time-sensitive, and investment carries risks. Caution is advised when entering the market!
