Expert Says 'Something Is Cracking A Little Bit In The Economy' As He Points Out Lower Hiring Rate, Rising Credit Card Delinquencies: 'Does That Turn Into Recession? Not Necessarily'
Expert Says 'Something Is Cracking A Little Bit In The Economy' As He Points Out Lower Hiring Rate, Rising Credit Card Delinquencies: 'Does That Turn Into Recession? Not Necessarily'
Neil Irwin, Chief Economic Correspondent at Axios, has identified various economic "warning signs" but assures recession is not yet here.
Axios首席经济记者尼尔·欧文（Neil Irwin）指出了各种经济“警告信号”，但他保证目前尚未陷入衰退。
What Happened: During CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday, Irwin highlighted the "warning signs" such as credit card and auto loan delinquencies, low hiring rate, and price sensitivity among consumers.
事件经过：在周三的CNBC“Squawk Box”节目中，欧文强调了“警告信号”，例如信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠、低招聘率以及消费者的价格敏感性。
"Does that turn into recession? Not necessarily," Irwin said.
欧文表示：“这会导致经济衰退吗？不一定。”
"But it does tell you that something is cracking a little bit in the economy and the Fed, if they don't start moving, we will definitely be behind the curve."
“但这确实表明经济中出现了一些不稳定的迹象，如果联邦储备委员会不开始采取措施，我们肯定会跟不上。”
.@Neil_Irwin sees lots of warning signs in the economy – from credit card and auto loan delinquencies to a lower hiring rate.
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) August 21, 2024
"Does that turn into recession? Not necessarily," he says. "But it does tell you that something is cracking a little bit in the economy." pic.twitter.com/l72PN2wq9R
Neil Irwin在经济中看到了很多预警信号——从信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠到招聘率的下降。
CNBC的Squawk Box在2024年8月21日发布的推文中表示：“欧文在经济中看到了很多警告信号，从信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠到招聘率的下降。”
他说：“这会导致经济衰退吗？不一定。但这确实表明经济中出现了一些不稳定的迹象。”
Why It Matters: Irwin's comments come amid a backdrop of concerning economic data. The U.S. economy saw a downward revision of 818,000 non-farm payrolls between April 2023 and March 2024, a 0.5% decrease in overall job gains for the year. This fall was greater than what major U.S. investment banks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) were expecting.
为什么这很重要：欧文的评论出现在令人担忧的经济数据背景下。在2023年4月至2024年3月之间，美国经济对非农业就业人数进行了下调，减少了81.8万人，全年总的就业增长率下降了0.5%。这一下滑幅度超出了高盛（NYSE:GS）和摩根大通（NYSE:JPM）等主要美国投资银行的预期。
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs recently revised its U.S. recession forecast, reducing the probability of a recession within the next 12 months to 20%. This adjustment came just two weeks after the bank increased the odds from 15% to 25% following a weaker-than-expected July jobs report.
此外，高盛最近调整了其美国经济衰退预测，将未来12个月内出现衰退的可能性降至20%。这一调整是在该银行在一份弱于预期的七月就业报告后，仅仅两周之后，将可能性从15%增加到25%。
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Image via Federal Reserve
图片来源：美联储
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
本报道使用Benzinga Neuro生成，并由Pooja Rajkumari编辑