It's been a good week for Shanjin International Gold Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000975) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest second-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.6% to CN¥17.68. Revenue of CN¥3.7b came in a notable 30% ahead of expectations, while statutory earnings of CN¥0.51 were in line with what the analysts had been forecasting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Shanjin International Gold's ten analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be CN¥9.88b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 18% to CN¥0.75. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥9.76b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.70 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 5.6% to CN¥20.47. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Shanjin International Gold analyst has a price target of CN¥22.03 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥16.65. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Shanjin International Gold's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.1% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.6% per year. It's pretty clear that Shanjin International Gold's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Shanjin International Gold's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Shanjin International Gold's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Shanjin International Gold analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Shanjin International Gold has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.