Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Gushengtang Holdings Limited (HKG:2273) After Its Interim Report
Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Gushengtang Holdings Limited (HKG:2273) After Its Interim Report
Shareholders of Gushengtang Holdings Limited (HKG:2273) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 17% to HK$39.15 following its latest half-yearly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CN¥1.4b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥1.03 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Gushengtang Holdings is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
固生堂控股有限公司(HKG:2273)的股东本周将感到高兴,因为股价上涨17%,至39.15港元,紧跟最新的半年度业绩。总体而言,这是一个可靠的成绩,营业收入为人民币14亿,每股盈利为人民币1.03,都与分析师的预期一致,表明固生堂控股正在按照预期执行。分析师通常会在每份收益报告后更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的预估中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何新的关注点。我们认为读者会发现看到分析师对明年的最新(法定)收益预测很有趣。
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After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Gushengtang Holdings are now predicting revenues of CN¥3.07b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 31% to CN¥1.43. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥3.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.44 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
在最新的结果公布之后,覆盖固生堂控股的16位分析师现在预测该公司2024年的营业收入将达到30.7亿人民币。如果达到预期,这将反映出与过去12个月相比营业收入实现了稳固的14%增长。每股收益预计将飙升31%至人民币1.43。在此份收益报告之前,分析师一直预测2024年的营业收入将达到30.5亿人民币,每股收益(EPS)为人民币1.44。因此,很明显,尽管分析师已经更新了他们的预估,但在最新业绩公布后,并没有对业务的预期产生重大变化。
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at HK$64.04. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gushengtang Holdings at HK$73.92 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$52.50. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Gushengtang Holdings shareholders.
因此,毫无疑问,一致的价格目标基本保持在64.04港元。一致的价格目标只是个别分析师目标的平均值,因此看一下底层预估的范围有多广可能会有所帮助。目前,最看好的分析师认为固生堂控股的股价为73.92港元,而最看淡的认为股价为52.50港元。分析师对这家企业的看法确实存在差异,但在我们看来,预估的波动不够大,因此不会对固生堂控股的股东造成极端的后果。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Gushengtang Holdings'historical trends, as the 29% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 27% annual growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 10% annually. So although Gushengtang Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
当然,观察这些预测的另一种方式是将它们放在与行业本身的背景下进行对比。我们可以从最新的预估推断,预测认为固生堂控股的历史趋势将延续下去,因为截至2024年底的年化营业收入增长为29%,大致与过去三年的27%年增长相当。将此与整个行业进行比较,分析师的预估(总体上)表明行业的营业收入预计将每年增长10%。因此,固生堂控股预计将保持其营业收入增长速度,且预计增速明显快于整个行业。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$64.04, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
最明显的结论是近期业务前景没有发生重大变化,分析师们保持了收益预测稳定,与之前的估计一致。令人欣慰的是,营业收入预测没有发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价目标稳定在64.04港元,最新预测不足以对他们的价目标产生影响。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Gushengtang Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
话虽如此,公司收益的长期轨迹比明年更重要。我们对固生堂控股的预测延伸至2026年,您可以免费在我们的平台上查看。
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
另一件需要考虑的事情是管理层和董事最近是否在买卖股票。在我们的平台上,您可以查看过去12个月所有公开市场股票交易的概述。
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