Shanghai @hubLtd (SHSE:603881) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Shanghai @hubLtd (SHSE:603881) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Shanghai @hub Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603881) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
印象贝尔克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录在说出'最大的投资风险不在于价格波动,而在于你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失'时毫不掩饰。因此,当您考虑任何特定股票的风险时,需要考虑负债,因为负债过多可能会拖垮一家公司。我们发现上海 @hub Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603881) 在其业务中确实使用了负债。但更重要的问题是:这些负债造成了多大风险?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
通常情况下,只有当企业无法通过筹集资金或利用自身现金流来轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题。资本主义的必然过程是“创造性破坏”,银行家无情地清算了失败企业。虽然这种情况并不常见,但我们经常看到负债企业因放贷人迫使其以低价募集资本而永久稀释股东权益。话虽如此,最常见的情况是公司合理地管理其负债,使公司受益。在考虑公司的债务水平时,第一步是将其现金和债务放在一起考虑。
What Is Shanghai @hubLtd's Net Debt?
上海 @hubLtd的净负债是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Shanghai @hubLtd had CN¥2.54b of debt in March 2024, down from CN¥3.26b, one year before. However, it also had CN¥1.06b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥1.49b.
您可以点击下方的图表查看历史数据,但它显示上海 @hubLtd 在2024年3月有25.4亿人民币的债务,较一年前的32.6亿人民币有所减少。然而,它也有10.6亿人民币的现金,因此其净负债是14.9亿人民币。
![1724367200214](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240823/42759370-0-7372d8d41112536b4a426787b7e8452a.webp/bigjpg)
A Look At Shanghai @hubLtd's Liabilities
关注上海@hubLtd的负债情况
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Shanghai @hubLtd had liabilities of CN¥1.95b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥2.09b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.06b as well as receivables valued at CN¥644.4m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥2.34b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
从最新的资产负债表数据来看,我们可以看到上海@hubLtd在12个月内有19.5亿人民币的负债,超过12个月期限的负债为20.9亿人民币。抵消这些负债的是其10.6亿人民币的现金和12个月内到期的64440万人民币的应收款。因此,它的负债总额超过了现金和短期应收款的总和23.4亿人民币。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Shanghai @hubLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥7.08b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
虽然这看起来很多,但上海@hubLtd的市值达到70.8亿人民币,所以如果需要的话,它可能通过增加资本来加强资产负债表。但很明显,我们应该密切关注其是否能够在不稀释股权的情况下管理其债务。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我们通过查看净债务与利息、税、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)之比以及计算其利息支出由收益前利息和税(EBIT)覆盖的程度来度量一家公司的债务负载相对于其收益能力的程度。此方法的优点在于我们同时考虑了债务的绝对量(以净债务为EBITDA)以及与该债务相关的实际利息支出(以其利息覆盖倍数计算)。
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.5 and interest cover of 2.5 times, it seems to us that Shanghai @hubLtd is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Unfortunately, Shanghai @hubLtd saw its EBIT slide 4.5% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Shanghai @hubLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
看到它的净债务与息税前利润(EBITDA)比率为1.5倍,利息覆盖率为2.5倍,我们认为上海@hubLtd可能是合理运用债务的。因此,我们建议密切关注融资成本对业务的影响。不幸的是,上海@hubLtd在过去的12个月中EBIt下滑了4.5%。如果这种盈利趋势持续下去,它的债务负担将变得沉重,就像北极熊看着自己唯一的幼崽一样。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是需要关注的领域。然而,未来的盈利,超过任何其他因素,将决定上海@hubLtd维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份显示分析师盈利预测的免费报告。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Shanghai @hubLtd actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
但我们最后的考虑也很重要,因为公司无法用纸上利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,逻辑上的下一步是看EBIt的比例与实际自由现金流相匹配的程度。在过去三年中,上海@hubLtd的实际自由现金流比EBIt更多。在保持借款人好感方面,没有比入账现金更好的了。
Our View
我们的观点
On our analysis Shanghai @hubLtd's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. To be specific, it seems about as good at covering its interest expense with its EBIT as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. Considering this range of data points, we think Shanghai @hubLtd is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Shanghai @hubLtd , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
根据我们对上海@hubLtd的EBIt转化为自由现金流的分析,这表明它在应对债务上不会遇到太大麻烦。但是我们前面提到过的其他因素并不那么令人鼓舞。具体而言,它与EBIt相比,覆盖利息费用的能力就像湿袜子让你的脚保持温暖一样。考虑到这一系列数据点,我们认为上海@hubLtd在管理债务水平方面处于良好的位置。话虽如此,负担足够重,我们建议股东密切关注。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是一个明显的起点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。我们已经发现了上海@hubLtd的1个警告信号,了解它们应该成为您投资过程的一部分。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果您是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,立即发现我们独家的净现金增长股票列表。
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