Calculating The Fair Value Of Chengdu Gas Group Corporation Ltd. (SHSE:603053)
Calculating The Fair Value Of Chengdu Gas Group Corporation Ltd. (SHSE:603053)
Key Insights
主要見解
- The projected fair value for Chengdu Gas Group is CN¥7.53 based on Dividend Discount Model
- With CN¥8.58 share price, Chengdu Gas Group appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Industry average of 69% suggests Chengdu Gas Group's peers are currently trading at a higher premium to fair value
- 根據現金股息法( Dividend Discount Model ),成都燃氣集團的預期公允價值爲7.53人民幣。
- 以8.58人民幣的股價交易的成都燃氣集團看起來接近其預估公允價值。
- 行業平均值爲69%,表明成都燃氣集團的同行公司目前以較高溢價交易。
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Chengdu Gas Group Corporation Ltd. (SHSE:603053) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
今天我們將通過一個估值方法簡單地分析成都燃氣集團有限公司( SHSE:603053 )作爲投資機會的吸引力,通過預期未來現金流並將其貼現到現值。我們將利用貼現現金流(DCF)模型來實現此目的。不要被術語打倒,其背後的數學實際上非常簡單。
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
公司的估值可以用很多種方式來估算,因此我們指出DCF並不適用於每種情況。任何對內在價值想要了解更多的人都應該閱讀簡單華爾街分析模型的報告。
The Calculation
計算方法
We have to calculate the value of Chengdu Gas Group slightly differently to other stocks because it is a gas utilities company. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%. Compared to the current share price of CN¥8.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
我們需要稍微以與其他股票不同的方式計算成都燃氣集團的價值,因爲它是一個燃氣公用事業公司。在這種方法中,使用每股股息(DPS),因爲很難估計自由現金流,而且分析師經常沒有報告。除非一家公司將大部分FCF作爲股息支付,否則這種方法通常會低估股票的價值。我們使用戈登增長模型,假設股息將以可持續的速度無限期增長。出於多種原因,我們使用無法超過公司國內生產總值(GDP)的非常保守的增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(2.9%)。然後,預期每股股息以6.8%的權益成本貼現到當天的價值。與當前每股股價(CN¥8.6)相比,公司在撰寫本文時估值約爲合理價值。但請記住,這只是一個近似的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣,輸入垃圾,輸出垃圾。
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
每股股息 = 預期每股股息 / (折現率-永久增長率)
= CN¥0.3 / (6.8% – 2.9%)
= CN¥0.3 / (6.8% - 2.9%)
= CN¥7.5
=7.5元人民幣
Important Assumptions
重要假設
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Chengdu Gas Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
現在對於貼現現金流,最重要的輸入是貼現率和實際現金流。如果您不同意這些結果,請自己計算並修改假設條件。貼現現金流模型還沒有考慮行業可能的週期性變化或公司未來的資本需求,因此不能完全展示出公司的潛力。鑑於我們是潛在股東,成都燃氣使用的貼現率是股權成本,而不是資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC),後者兼顧了債務。在這個計算中,我們使用了6.8%的貼現率,這是基於0.800的槓桿貝塔。貝塔是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場波動性的指標。我們的貝塔來自在全球可比公司中的平均貝塔,受到了0.8到2.0之間的限制,這是一個穩定業務合理的範圍。
Next Steps:
下一步:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Chengdu Gas Group, there are three fundamental aspects you should look at:
雖然公司的估值很重要,但理想情況下,它不應是您詳細研究一家公司時的唯一分析依據。貼現現金流模型並非投資估值的全部。最好是應用不同的情況和假設來看看它們對公司估值的影響。例如,如果終值增長率進行微調,可能會大大改變總體結論。對於成都燃氣而言,您應該關注三個基本方面:
- Risks: You should be aware of the 1 warning sign for Chengdu Gas Group we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
- 風險:在考慮投資這家公司之前,您應該了解我們發現的成都燃氣的一個警示信號。
- 其他高質量選擇:你喜歡一個好的多面手嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量股票交互列表,了解還有哪些你可能錯過的好東西!
- 其他環保型公司:擔心環境問題,並認爲消費者將越來越多地購買環保產品?瀏覽我們的交互式公司列表,了解一些您可能沒有想到的股票!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都會更新其所覆蓋的每隻中國股票的DCF計算,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,只需在此搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。